The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Residents' Consumption Expectation In China

The 19th National Congress has repeatedly mentioned consumption.Consumer expectations have attracted more and more attention from the academic community.This article is based on this background,analyzes the characteristics and nature of China's consumer expectations,and focuses on the impact of monetary policy on it,thus ensuring the forward-looking and effectiveness of monetary policy for monetary decision-making departments,and providing reasonable ways and means to stimulate consumer spending expectations.This dissertation mainly used positive analysis and normative analysis to summarize the characteristics and effective elements of Chinese residents' consume expectation,to verify the relationships between consume expectation and monetary policies and to finally find out the changes of monetary policies' effective to the consume expectation.Researches shows that consume expectation of Chinese residents presents adaptive expectation characteristics which can be effected by the monetary policy and changes constantly.By using the TVP-VAR model to analysis quantitatively,price monetary policy shows lower and stronger effective and quantity monetary policy shows faster and weaker effective for the short and medium term whilst residents' consume expectation returns to rational and policies return to Monetary Neutrality.As a conclusion,policy-makers better to use quantity monetary policy to stabilize the consume expectation for the short term,use price monetary policy to stimulate the consume expectation for the medium term and develop new type monetary policies for the lone term.In terms of execution,policy-makers better to stimulate the consume expectation frequently and weakly,place extra emphasis on the effect of the monetary policies' signal and try to avoid stimulate the consume expectation directly.The government should accelerate the formation of reasonable expectations by create a transparent policy environment.