Expectation Traps Of China And Empirical Research

Since the21st century，our country economy to flourish, to become the world’ssecond-largest economy. Along with economic growth, however, our country is alsoexperiencing high inflation and inflation expectations. The outbreak of the financialcrisis in2008and rounds of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United Statesexacerbate inflation and expectations of our country. The management of inflationexpectations has become an important means to control inflation in china.Discretionary monetary policy may cause inflation expectation traps, producemultiple equilibrium phenomenon.The purpose of this study is to analyze the characteristics of trap inflation expectationand inflation expectations China produces trap probability. To study the “Whetherexpectation traps have happened in China?”，“Whether China may fall into theinflation expectation traps?”，“How to deal with inflation expectation traps” threeproblems. Inflation expectation traps is one of the important causes of the recession,the expected trap is of great significance to the healthy development of macroeconomy. Research methods mainly include the combination of theoretical analysisand empirical analysis, combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,summarized combined with deductive reasoning. Mainly by comparing thecharacteristics of China’s macro economy and the American inflation expectationsmacroeconomic characteristics in the period of the trap, to illustrate the possibility ofthe existence of China’s inflation expectation traps. Through the empirical analysis onthe present Chinese inflation expectation traps range in recent years, to show thatinflation expectation traps effects on economic growth. Study other macroeconomicvariables for inflation expectation traps of impulse response and analysis of thecharacteristics of expected pitfalls and duration. The conclusion of this paper isChinese did not fall into the trap of inflation expectations, but Chinese this ongoinginflation, high inflation and expected economic condition may lead to inflationexpectation traps. At last，we suggest some copying strategies and emphasize the rulesof monetary policy and the importance of credibility of the monetary authorities。...