| Coincidentally, when the financialization of bulk commodity was quietly rising in2002, the export-oriented economy of China had already occupied a decisive position in the world economic system, and the high foreign exchange reserves formed by favorable balance of trade and foreign direct investment gave rise to the international calls for the appreciation of the RMB. The incorporation of bulk commodity into the asset pool of the long-term allocation of institutional investors has profound historical backgrounds:on the one hand, the transition of developed economies represented by America from traditional manufacturing industry to knowledge-oriented new economic patterns results in that international securities market enter into adjustment stage after a continuous increase of over6decades; on the other hand, the emerging economies represented by China enter into the climax of industrialization, promoting the continuous rising of the demands for bulk commodity. The institutional investors, who pursue long-term returns, adjust their investment priority from the single securities market to both securities market and bulk commodity market. Therefore, we proposed the investment thought of hybrid allocation of commodity asset and financial asset and the investment principle and implementation strategy of long-term investment and dynamic allocation.The research in the paper is divided into six closely connected modules:Ⅰ. The international resource demand under the new growth model of Chinese economy. The slowdown of international demand and transition of domestic economy hasten the generation of the new pattern of resource demand of our country. Firstly, by taking industrial upgrading, urbanization, energy conservation and emission reduction and domestic demand promotion as the criterion, we established a comprehensive evaluation index system of new growth model. Secondly, based on the historical data from2000to2011, we analyzed the variation trend of demands for ten kinds of resources including coal, petroleum, natural gas, new energy, copper, iron, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel, influencing factors and comprehensive usage rate. In the end, under the three situations including inertial increase, strict policy and slack policy, we predicted the quantity of resource demand of our country in2012to2020by using measurement model, and obtained the minimum subsistence level and upper limit by comparison.Ⅱ. The new pattern of international demand in Post Financial Crisis Era. The change of supply-demand relationship of international market affects the resource demand of our country through the channel of price. Firstly, we discussed the economic situations of America, Eurozone, Japan and emerging economies from two levels of entity economy and liquidity. Based on this, we tested the influence of the entity economy and liquidity of each country on the price of various resources through correlation analysis and regression analysis by selecting GDP and M2as the indexes reflecting macro-economy, and thus judged the influence of resource price on our country’s resource demand. The research found out:in a long term, the recovery of the entity economy of all countries is the major factor that drives the price of bulk commodity, and increasing currency liquidity doesn’t necessarily increase the price of bulk commodity; due to the internal restraint of economic growth, even if the price of bulk commodity is rising, the quantity of demand for various resources of China will still expand.Ⅲ. The dynamic adjustment strategy of the long-term allocation of bulk commodity assets. By establishing a stochastic programming model, we achieved the long-term dynamic allocation of financial assets and bulk commodity assets in international market, which reflected the chronicity, dynamic adjustability and globality in strategic allocation.IV. The influence of commodity financialization. Firstly, we reviewed the background and main features of financialization and briefly analyzed the internal and external factors of its occurrence. The results show that there is a significant correlation between the earnings rate of different commodity futures, and the correlation between the rate of returns on commodity futures and financial assets is increasing, while the correlation among the future varieties included into the price index of bulk commodity is apparently higher than that of future varieties not included, and the trading activity of commodity index funds is intense.V. The demands for commodity hedging of representative enterprises based on supply chain. Based on the perspectives of enterprises, we discussed the function of the asset allocation of bulk commodity and specific implementation strategy, studied supply chain strategy, international strategy and relevant hedging means and implementation strategy by choosing three key resource-based enterprises including Jiangxi Copper Corporation, Baosteel Group and China National Petroleum Corporation as the representatives, and discussed the participation model of sovereign wealth fund in the implementation of bulk commodity asset allocation.VI. The basic thought of risk management and emergency mechanism of bulk commodity investment. Considering the characteristics of commodity asset investment, we paid attention to market risks, basis risks and systematic risks, with the emphasis on the last one.Starting from the target of studying the investment concept and implementation strategy of the strategic allocation of bulk commodity, we concluded the following new understandings by combing theoretical analysis with empirical analysis:Firstly, under the background of international demand slowdown and domestic economic transition, the resource demand of our country forms a new pattern. Viewing from the evolution trend of historical data:the demands for various kinds of resources of our country in2000to2011generally present a trend of constant rising, the rates of rising present a momentum of fluctuating centering around mean value, and the comprehensive usage rate of resources is increasing; seeing from the results of correlation analysis:the increase of the export proportion of manufactured goods and high-tech products, the promotion of urbanization and the increase of GDP present a significant positive correlation with resource demand, the rising of the proportion of energy conservation and emission reduction and domestic household consumption presents a significant negative correlation with resource demand, and there is no significant correlation between the increase of the proportion of added value of tertiary industry and export and resource demand. Viewing from the prediction results of resource demand:the demands for various kinds of resources of our country in2012to2020will still maintain a state of continuous increase, but the growth momentum of resource demand will obviously slow down under the situation of implementing policy intervention, and the effect of strong intervention (the situation of strict policy) is greater than weak intervention (the situation of slack policy); the quantity of resource demand under inertial situation can be taken as the upper limit, while the resource demand under the situation of strict policy is the minimum subsistence level, and that under the situation of slack policy is the middle line.Secondly, the resource demand of China maintains a leading role in and exerts an important influence on the supply-demand relationship of international market. Seeing from the evolution trend of data, the economy of America is recovering and is very likely to maintain a constant growth at a low speed in the future; the economy of Eurozone also has the sign of recovery, but they still need a long time to completely recover and there exists a quite large national difference internally; Japanese economy will still be in downturn; the emerging economies will continue keeping on increasing rapidly, but they have higher fluctuation risks. In a midterm or long term, the increase of currency liquidity doesn’t necessarily push up the price of bulk commodity, while the growth of each country’s GDP is its major factor. Even though the price of bulk commodity will rise in the future, due to the internal restraint of economic growth, the quantity of China’s demand for bulk commodity will still increase.Thirdly, the strategic investment of bulk commodity assets should implement flexible dynamic adjustment under long-term goals, and the approach of dynamic allocation of international commodity assets based on multi-stage stochastic programming models can achieve an effective matching of risks and returns. The optimal strategy determined by this model can not only provide stronger ability to resist risks to investment portfolio, but also promote its space of earnings steadily and provide decision support to financial institutions for achieving the active management of international commodity asset investment under long-term goals.Fourthly, the strategic allocation of bulk commodity assets must supervise the financial systematic risks and adjust risks in time. The increase of systematic risks will decrease the earnings rate of commodity index and increase the fluctuation ratio of earnings rate.The international investment of bulk commodity done by Chinese financial institutions, which is just starting, will follow the whole process of the development and transition of Chinese economy and industrial upgrading, and will surely exert a lasting and profound influence on international capital market. |
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