Research On Control Of The Risk Of Stock Investment Under The Macroeconomic Fluctuation

The stock market is the reflection of the condition of the macroeconomic and has the forecast function of the macroeconomic condition. The investor faces one of the main system risk of the stock investment which is caused by the business cycles. The type of the risk of stock investment and how to control the risk are one of the main research fields of finance.Under the condition of macroeconomic volatility, we first divide the risk of stock investment into different type and put out the stock portfolio method to manage the risk, according to the sensitivity of the industry or commodity with the business cycle and the trend of Chinese economic. In the paper, we select coal industry, rare metal industry, medical industry, the above industry simple rate portfolio and the shanghai stock composite price index as samples. We compare the numeric characters and numeric relations of the changes of the stock portfolio’s price, reward, β nature of risk, the index of Sharp etc of the different samples from2006to2010period. The main results are the following:the price’s change of the coal’s portfolio is up the greatest and the next is the simple portfolio. The coal’s price and the rare metal have the greatest upward during the expansionary policies’period. The investor’s behavior has great change. The index of Sharpe indicates that the coal’s portfolio is the highest, the simple portfolio is the second. The period of the portfolio has an important effect on the portfolio’s reward, nature of risk, evaluation of portfolio. The study implies that it is effective to construct different industries into portfolio to control risk according to the sensitivity of the industry with business cycle and monetary policies and fundamental function in the economy.