Study On The Evolution Process And Mechanism Of Agricultural Modernization In Western China

This dissertation is an empirical study on the evolution process and mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. The harmony and sustainable development between economy and society has been long plagued by the lag issue of agricultural modernization in Western China. The evolution of agricultural modernization is not only disjointed on the whole, but there is a serious contrast in some local areas, reflecting the specificity and complexity of the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. In this study, the key question is:What are the differences in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China? What are the main impacting factors? And how do they affect the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China? And the study purposes are: building a general theoretical framework to reveal the equilibrium conditions of agricultural modernization evolution by drawing on relevant theory; revealing the performance of variations of agricultural modernization’s general law by portraying the evolution process of western agricultural modernization; empirically analyzing the major factors to resolve the mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. The research ideas of the dissertation is that, a variety of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods are used in this dissertation to portray the evolution process and differences, resolve the evolution mechanism, and based on the theoretical and empirical conclusions, the main way and countermeasures are proposed to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.1. The main contents①The theoretical interpretation of the evolution of agricultural modernization. Firstly, the classical theory and related researches involved are summarized, sorted and commented, which is used as main basis of the theoretical and logical starting point for the study to clarify the main research direction and perspective. Secondly, the concept of agricultural modernization, as a starting point of further research, is compared and clarified. And based on cognitive and research of agricultural modernization types and models in the whole world, an analytical model is established to reveal the equilibrium conditions of the evolution of agricultural modernization. Finally, based on the comments of existing research, modernization indicators and quantitative methods are chosen. ②The development status and comprehensive measurement of agricultural modernization in Western China. Firstly, from the perspective of history and the main policy line, the track of agricultural modernization is recalled from the planned economy period, the beginning of reform and opening up period to overall economic transition period, and a brief comment is made. Secondly, some typical, representative single quantitative indicators are used to depict the status and main achievements of western agricultural modernization from the perspective of the process and results. Finally, based on the limitations of single indicator, indicators synthesis of single indicators is used to measure the development of agricultural modernization, laying foundation for text analysis.③Comparative analysis and regional differences of the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on the results of comprehensive measurement, the overall evolution features and regional differences are revealed by the timing comparison, horizontal comparison, and longitudinal comparison. And on the basis of predicting agriculture modernization in the future, the evolution trends of western agricultural modernization are grasped in order to form a preliminary understanding of the evolution of western agricultural modernization.④The differences in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. A variety of econometric models are established to depict the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China from the evolution process characteristics, evolution status and transferring and evolution stage. By comparing them with general law of agricultural modernization respectively, differences and manifestations are revealed in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. Finally, consequences for the difference the evolution of the western agricultural modernization are analyzed.⑤Empirical Analysis on the major factors affecting the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on the theoretical analysis framework, factors affecting the evolution of western agricultural modernization are expanded from the aspects of both endogenous and exogenous. And then quantitative indicators are selected and the models are designed to make an empirical analysis. Based on balanced panel data of twelve provinces in western China, the impact direction and degree of major factors are examined by spatial and threshold econometrics. At last, by comparing the empirical results, the factors affecting the difference in the evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China. ⑥The evolution mechanism of agricultural modernization in Western China. According to the direction of main factors, the mechanism has been subdivided into force mechanism, restraint mechanism and security mechanisms to resolve the evolution of the western agricultural modernization comprehensively.⑦The main ways and countermeasures to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Based on comprehensive analysis of the text, the main ways, policy operational thinking and related countermeasures are proposed to promote the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.2. The main conclusions①Theoretical deduction shows that breakthrough of agricultural human capital "thresholds" is the key to agricultural modernization evolution. The study finds that the endogenous model based on "labor heterogeneity hypothesis" is more suitable than neoclassical model to reveal the equilibrium conditions of agricultural modernization evolution. Under the framework of endogenous model, the breakthrough of agricultural human capital "thresholds" is the key to agricultural modernization evolution. The accumulation of physical capital will lead to "crowding effect" if excessively emphasized, and will block the evolution process of agricultural modernization. This also shows that in the practical operation of agricultural modernization, the "epitaxial model" simply driven by physical capital investment may make the evolution of agricultural modernization targets deviate and lead to counterproductive effect. Meanwhile, the theoretical deduction also reveals that technological progress should not be consider as unique content in promoting the evolution process of agricultural modernization, changes in arable land and labor force will also affect the time of agricultural human capital arriving at "equilibrium point", thereby affecting the evolution process of agricultural modernization evolution.②In the sample interval the evolution velocity differences of agricultural modernization in Western China are outstanding among and within regions. In the sample interval, the evolution velocity of western agricultural modernization is fast and after implementation of western development strategy as a "watershed", the evolution of western agricultural modernization sets foot on the fast "track". And it takes on the characteristics of "step growth", non-stationary speed and intermittent increase, sensitive to the policies and so on. But on the other hand, based on horizontal and vertical comparison, the evolution of western agricultural modernization is significantly slower between regions. The characteristics of internal structural differences, inconsistency, and imbalance are also more prominent within western regions. The evolution rate of northwest region is better than southwest region, which also shows that it will be the structural contradictions in catching up process of the evolution of western agricultural modernization and must be resolved. Meanwhile, from the evolution trend of the western agricultural modernization, the "fluctuations forward" and differences between regions will still more distinct in the future.③The evolution process of agricultural modernization in Western China has "club convergence" feature and the "polarization" problem is serious."Convergence hypothesis", Sala-I-Martin model and Kernel nonparametric methods are applied to reveal process characteristics of agricultural modernization in Western China. From the perspective of China, the process characteristics of the evolution of agricultural modernization present a typical significant "club convergence", which means that the western region and eastern and central region will converge on their own "steady state equilibrium", that is, the "steady state" of the east, middle and the west is different. In the long run, the "inequality" of the evolution of western agricultural modernization will not change. It is clear that the process characteristics of agricultural modernization are inconsistent and contrary with the general law. At the same time, within regions the evolution of agricultural modernization among western provinces does not converge to the same "steady state", they also showed significant "club convergence", embodied as the character of "twin peak"-"single peak"-"bi-modal and tri-modal alternating" across the whole sample period. And from the distance between "peak" and "the crest", the polarization problem is still serious.④The changes and conversions of the evolution state of agricultural modernization in Western China are difficult and repetitive. Based on system evolution thought and Markov Chain model, the changes and conversions of agricultural modernization evolution state are revealed. The study found that the probability of the Markov Chain transition probability matrix on the main diagonal is greater. Transition probabilities on the main diagonal reveal the "internal dynamic" conversion of evolution state of western agricultural modernization. The main diagonal transition probability is greater, which means the transition probability or probability is small, so you can imagine how difficult and complex the evolution state changes of western agricultural modernization are. And by comparing Markov Chain’s "initial distribution" and "steady-state distribution", the relative proportion of some evolution state in "steady-state distribution" has declined comparing with the "initial distribution", the evolution state of existence repeatability and may degenerate, the variability is obvious.⑤The evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is in accordance with the "Logistic growth curve style" stage law and its differences are significant. In the sample interval, the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is in line with phased law depicted by Logistic growth curve. The evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China has evolved to the first phase of Logistic growth curve that is "formative stage", While China and eastern regions have evolved to the "early growth stage" and "post-growth stage". By comparison it can be found that the evolutionary stage of western agriculture is significant different. In addition, the synchronization and its dynamic equilibrium among agricultural modernization, industrialization and urbanization are also the general law. However, in the west, the evolution of agricultural modernization lag behind the evolution of industrialization and urbanization, the phenomenon of dynamic imbalance and disconnection are very prominent.⑥The current evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China is balanced and joined by human capital in agriculture, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural research and development, industrialization and urbanization.The empirical results reveal that human capital of agriculture, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural research and development, industrialization, urbanization have significant positive effect on the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China. Among them, the coefficient of human capital in agriculture is maximum, followed by industrialization and urbanization. There exists "threshold effect" of each driving factor, after crossing appropriate "threshold" the marginal effect is also different. This shows the evolution of western modernization of agriculture is not driven by single force, but driven by several driving forces that build up the dynamic mechanism of the evolution of agricultural modernization in Western China.⑦The main reason of lagging problem in western agricultural modernization evolution is caused by the restricting mechanism composed of agriculture division, information technology and agriculture structure and the missing of institutional safeguards. Among them, farmers’"industrialization" formed by incomplete non-farm agricultural division, high transaction costs of agricultural traversing division leading to lacking agricultural cooperation and absence of new agricultural business entities and the disjointing of "market chain" and "processing chain" in the agricultural industry chain will arrest the evolution of western agricultural modernization. The homogeneity of agricultural structure homogeneity formed by "large and small" problem, the phenomenon of depressing food production to expand economic crop production in the planting structure adjustment will result in endowments departure and food security, which would weaken the basic condition of the evolution of western agricultural modernization. The backwardness of western information industry, the dissemination of information infrastructure system, inadequate dissemination system and scarce information resources restricted the "osmotic effect" and its influences on the evolution of western agricultural modernization. In addition, to some extent, the lacking of institutional safeguards strengthen the binding mechanism’s "negative effect" and arrest the evolution of western agricultural modernization.3. Innovation①The "equilibrium" conditions of agricultural modernization evolution are revealed by mathematical models. With the production function, this paper discusses the conditions of agricultural modernization evolution impacted by two mechanisms, physical capital under neoclassical framework and human capital under the endogenous development framework. The theoretical deduction shows that breaking through thresholds of agricultural human capital accumulation is the key condition of agricultural modernization evolution, and the empirical analysis coincides the theoretical reasoning, which is rarely involved in previous studies. And it is supposed to be new from this point of view.②The differences between the western agricultural modernization evolution and the general law are revealed. Referring to the "convergence hypothesis", system evolution thinking and Logistic growth curve, this paper comprehensively and empirically analyzes the differences between the western agricultural modernization evolution and the general law from evolution progress characteristic, evolution state transferring and evolution stage law. And this study makes up the flaws that most of current study focus on the estimation of agricultural modernization.③The main factors and their influential rank of western agricultural modernization evolution are empirically analyzed. Based on the theoretical analysis framework, and from endogenous and exogenous two levels, the factors impacting evolution of agricultural modernization in western China mainly are agricultural human capital, agricultural comparative advantage, agricultural R&D, agricultural structures, agricultural division of labor, urbanization, industrialization, information technology, institutional arrangements and policy support, which are empirically analyzed in the model. The results show that, agricultural human capital has a significant positive effect with the largest coefficient, followed by industrialization and urbanization. This study, to some extent, makes up the shortage that more qualitative study and less quantitative study on the evolution of agricultural modernization.④New scientific methods are applied to the study and make a breakthrough. The methods of Nonparametric Kernel Density Estimation, Markov Chain, Logistic Growth Curve Model and Levenberg Marquardt Estimation, which are never used in this field before, are used when analyzing the evolution progress of agricultural modernization. Moreover, when empirically analyzing the factors of agricultural modernization evolution in western China, the frontier and advanced methods like Spatial Econometrics and Threshold Measurement are applied to overcome the limitation of traditional econometrics methods, which may offer some new ideas.