Research On Risk Management Of National S&T Planned Projects Based On The Asymmetric Information Theory

It has become the general consensus of the world that Science and technology are important driving force of economic growth. The capacity of scientific and technological innovation is the important factor that affects a country’s or region’s economic and social sustainable development. It has become the common choice for many governments to enhance comprehensive national strength and core competitiveness, establish national innovation system, and take the road of innovation-oriented country relying on technological innovation. National S&T planned projects are the main form of government investment in science and technology. They are the important measures to mobilize the scientific resources in accordance with national goals, guide the direction of science and technology, and implement the scientific and technological development strategy. They play an increasingly significant role in promoting economic development and satisfying social needs. The risk management of national S&T planned projects is an important, urgent and significant task because of their huge investment, wide range, deep social impact and high degree of risk. From the problem of asymmetric information in the national S&T planned projects, this dissertation researches the risk management with system science, game theory, new institutional economics, science of science, technical innovation, and modern project management methods based on the asymmetric information theory.The main contents in this dissertation are listed as follows:1. This dissertation describes the concept of national S&T planned projects, analyzes and summaries S&T plan system features of some main countries, explains the process of China’s national S&T plan system formation and development, then analyzes the project characteristics and the modes of organization and management deeply.2. This dissertation points the asymmetric information in study stages among different main bodies of national S&T planned projects, analyzes the relevant problems, and researches the asymmetric information theory’s applicability to risk management of national S&T planned projects.3. The theoretical framework has been set up based on the asymmetric information theory. This dissertation distinguishes and analyzes national S&T planned projects’risk problems applied principles and models of asymmetric information theory. The key of the study is the causes lead to rent-seeking risk, adverse selection, moral hazard and the game relationship among the various main bodies from the perspective of asymmetric information. In this dissertation, the measures to prevent rent-seeking risk are discussed, the signal screening model to prevent adverse selection is set up, the incentive mechanism to prevent moral hazard and applied to the multi-agent in the team are also set up.4. The multi-layer principal-agent structure in the national S&T planned projects is analyzed layer by layer. This dissertation proposes the concept of main body risk of the national S&T planned projects, sets up the risk evaluation index system based on three-layer principal-agent model, and makes empirical analysis by using BP neural network model.5. The behaviors of bad faith in national S&T planned projects due to asymmetric information should be managed. In order to do this, the dissertation proposes the theory and method to evaluate the S&T research reputation based on the S&T input and output efficiency, sets up the evaluation index system, and makes empirical analysis by using data envelopment analysis.