Research On Risks Of Breakthrough Innovation Based On Risk Assessment And Dynamic Evolution Analysis

Breakthrough technological innovation, which is established on a whole set of different scientific and technological principles, can occur reform in areas such as product, process or service, in order to change the market rules and the competitive situation, and even cause the entire industry to re-shuffle. As is proven, breakthrough innovation is an effective way for enterprises to build the core competitiveness. But, compared with the incremental innovation, in breakthrough innovation projects, project teams has to contend not only with challenging technical and market uncertainties, but with organizational and resource uncertainties as well, which have been plagued by the decision makers. So, this study has enriched breakthrough technological innovation theory and has important practical significance.This paper analyzes the generation and conduction mechanism of breakthrough innovation risk under the combination of breakthrough innovation and risk theories, and sets up a breakthrough innovation risk system. By discussing the dynamic evolution process of this risk system, the paper develops risk elements system of breakthrough innovation and assessment model of breakthrough innovation risk level. By using the system dynamic model, this study describes the process of risk evolution.Firstly, this paper points out that the breakthrough innovation risk source system is a multi-dimensional, multi-level risk source system, and it mainly includes three aspects of risk source:external environmental risk source, internal risk source, innovation project risk source; and under these analyses, combined with the breakthrough innovation enterprise’s characteristic, this paper points out the concept of breakthrough innovation risk threshold and the risk system evolution mechanism of breakthrough innovation in enterprises.Secondly, this paper points out that the enterprise innovation risk system is a complex system, with the complex features of open, nonlinear, far from equilibrium, stochastic fluctuation.On this basis, by using the method of stability analysis, mutation analysis, stochastic fluctuation strength analysis, the paper gets these conclusions:the evolution of breakthrough innovation risk system is an expanding process of organization structure and resource capabilities. The characteristics of the evolution path is diversity and selective; the evolution process of breakthrough innovation risk system involves two stages of cumulative transition and the mutation; the random fluctuating force may have a significant effect on the evolution of breakthrough innovation risk system.Thirdly, this study designs a questionnaire of risk factors on breakthrough innovation projects. By using the method of validity, reliability and Principal Component Analysis, the paper gets14main components,55measurement items, and establishes the risk element system of breakthrough innovation project.Fourthly, this paper points out the method of Extension-Matter-Element model of risk measure based on Principal Component Analysis, and makes comprehensive evaluation of BYD pure electric vehicle project’s risk status. The results show the level of risk BYD electric vehicle project in two levels, and it is low risk. At the same time, the paper evaluates the risk of each risk factor of the project. The results are shown in table4-7.Finally, through the system dynamics model and simulation model, the paper reveals the dynamic change trend of breakthrough innovation item risk present situation similar curve inverted U type, and through the analysis of the parameters of the model, the paper provides the basis for the enterprise to formulate effective policies and measures of the risk control.