| Energy is one of the basic elements of economic development. In the past decades, the major western developed countries have consumed a large amount of fossil energy in the process of economic development.The global limited fossil energy reserves has become a point of contention, fossil energy consumption brings the greenhouse effect has become a global negotiation problem. With the development of economy, the global energy consumption is expected to grow considerably, controlling the total energy consumption and reducing energy intensity will become the world common direction.China is the largest developing country in the world, its population accounted for1/5of the world’s. China must maintain a certain growth rate to improve the national’s standard of living, ease the employment pressure and to maintain social stability.Can not to slow economy growth speed to reduce the total energy consumption and total carbon dioxide emissions in short term.On the other hand, as the world’s second largest energy production, consumption and carbon emission country, China also faces more pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction.Over the past years, the Chinese government has been committed to energy-saving emission reduction and achieved certain results. China’s" National economy and social development in the Eleventh Five Years Plan" had put forward the energy intensity reduction20%in Eleventh Five Years Plan period,"National economy and social development in the Twelfth Five Years Plan "has put forward clearly again energy intensity decreased in16%in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period.Energy saving target putted forward,has make China’s energy-saving with quantitative indicators, so that China’s strategic planning, policy formulation and implementation of government supervision have standards. The implementation of energy-saving target is the guarantee of China’s economic and energy sustainable development. China as a relative lack of resources and must maintain a certain economic growth country,to lower the consumption of resources and to achieve rapid economic growth, is significant and far-reaching thing.China has a vast territory, the economic development level, technology and equipment level and economic structure have big differences in regions.Different influences of non-economic structure and economic structure on regional energy intensity make the energy saving potential different in regions.The visual point of view, in addition to the economic development level and the progress of science and technology, economic structure is the most important factor affecting energy intensity.Current research on the ralationship between the economic development level and the progress of scientific and technological and the energy intensity is more, on the qualitative relationship between industrial structure and energy intensity is more also, but research on the quantitative relationship between the economic structure and energy intensity is less, yet there has no literature on the calculation method of energy-saving difference coefficient under the constraint of economic structure.Therefore, using econometric methods to research the quantitative relationship between China’s economic structure and energy intensity, explore the calculation method of energy-saving difference coefficient, has the realistic significance for the national energy conservation policy and energy-saving emission reduction task decomposition and implementation, but also has the theoretical significance for the China’s energy economics research.In the case of China’s economy and energy development,based on the previous studies, this article uses a variety of econometric methods, thoroughly researches on the relationship between China’s economic structure and energy intensity, tries to reveal the quantities regularity, explores calculation method of energy-saving difference coefficient.This paper studies along the following ideas: first defines the relevant concepts of energy intensity and economic structure; and then examines the existence of quantitative relations between various economic structures and energy intensity;followed by the establishment of China’s energy intensity integrated model of influence factors, comes to conclusion quantities regularity of direct effects and indirect effects of economic structure; and then establishes the regional energy intensity panel data model, studies the regional economic structure different influences on energy intensity; finally establishes the regional energy intensity logarithmic panel model, from the economic structure difference angle explores the calculation method of energy-saving difference coefficient. Based on the above research, the main contents of this paper includes four points:1.Tests the quantitative relationship between the China’s industrial structure, demand structure and the structure of energy consumption and energy intensity. The fourth chapter summarizes the characteristics of China’s industrial structure, review research literatures on the relationship between industrial structure and energy intensity. And then using the LMID method decomposes the effects of three industrial structure on energy intensity, the results show that industry is the main factor affecting energy intensity. The further decomposition shows that the proportion of industry has small effect, the energy utilization efficiency improving in industry is the main factor affecting energy intensity. In order to further demonstrate the quantitative relationship between the proportion of industry and energy intensity, using30regional panel data of.the proportion of industry and energy intensity to do cointegration test, results show that panel cointegration relationship does not exist between the proportion of industry and energy intensity. In order to further explore the quantitative relationship between the industrial structure and energy intensity, we classify the40industries, draw12high energy-consuming industries. Based on the30regional panel data of the proportion of high energy-consuming industries and energy intensity,we do panel cointegration test,results show that there exists panel cointegration relationship between the proportion of high energy-consuming industries and energy intensity.The fifth chapter and the sixth chapter introduce China’s demand structure and energy consumption structure features, and then test the cointegration relationship between them and energy intensity, the results show that there exist long term stability cointegration relationships between the structure of demand and the structure of energy consumption and energy intensity.2.Based on the model of the path analysis,reveals the quantities regularity of the direct and indirect influences of China’s economic structure on energy intensity. In the seventh chapter, based on the fourth chapter to the sixth chapter,we choose GDP per capita as non-economic structure factor, the proportion of heavy industry, investment rate and the proportion of coal consumption as economic structure factors, establish the energy intensity integrated model.At the first, test the cointegration relationship between selected non economic structure factor and economic structure factors and energy intensity, then set up the path analysis model, study the direct and indirect influence of economic structure on energy intensity. The results show that in China, the proportion of heavy industry and investment rate has positive direct effect and negative total effect on the energy intensity,the proportion of coal consumption has positive direct effect and total positive effect on energy intensity.3.Based on fixed effect panel constant slope model and variable slope panel model of regional economic structure on energy intensity, comes to conclusion the difference influences in regions. In the eighth chapter, based on the fourth chapter to the seventh chapter, researches on the influence of China’s economic structure on energy intensity.We selecte per capita GDP as the non economic structure factor, the proportion of high energy-consuming industries, investment rate and coal consumption ratio as economic structure factors to establish the panel data model. the results of fixed effect panel constant slope model show that, the proportion of high energy-consuming industries, investment rate and coal consumption ratio have positive effects on energy intensity.The intercept terms indicate different effects of different regional economy structures on energy intensity, economy structure has more effect on energy intensity in Guizhou, Qinghai and Ningxia. Variable slope panel model results show, the proportion of high energy-consuming industries and the coal consumption ratio have different effects on energy intensity in different regions. effect of investment rate on energy intensity is not obvious.The proportion of high energy-consuming industries has more effect on energy intensity including Ningxia, Qinghai and Guizhou, has little effect including Shaanxi, Zhejiang and Yunnan. Coal consumption ratio has more effect on energy intensity including Qinghai, Ningxia and Guizhou, has little effect including Shaanxi, Hebei and Shanxi.4.Based on the variable slope logarithm panel model, from the economic structure difference angle explores the calculation method of energy-saving difference coefficient.According to the eighth chapter of the research results, considering the different influences of non-economic structure factor and economic structure factors on energy intensity in regions, selecte logarithmic per capita GDP, logarithmic the proportion of high energy-consuming industries, logarithmic the coal consumption ratio, establish the logarithmic energy intensity panel date model.Through the empirical model results, The ratio of national and regional proportion of high energy consumption industries and coal consumption ratio logarithm regression coefficient is energy-saving difference coefficient based on the high energy-consuming industries and the proportion of coal consumption ratio.The calculation results show that, the energy saving difference coefficients are different in China’s30regions, maximums are Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Zhejiang and Guangdong.minimums are Ningxia, Qinghai, Guizhou, Xinjiang and Shanxi. Using the coefficients in " Twelfth Five-Year Plan" show that this is more reasonable than the China’s energy saving target decomposition application.In summary, the innovation of this paper followes three aspects:1.Revealing the quantities regularity of direct and indirect influence of China’s economic structure on energy intensity. Many scholars have studied the relationships between the economic structure and energy intensity, these studies have only considered the direct influence of the economic structure on energy intensity.This paper uses the path analysis model, study the direct and indirect influence of the economic structure on energy intensity, further reveals the quantities regularity of the effect of economic structure on energy intensity.2.Exploring from an economic structure difference angle quantitative calculation method of energy-saving difference coefficient. From "the Eleventh five years", scholars estimate the energy saving potential of various regions, some set the low energy intensity areas as standard, some qualitatively analys the energy saving potential, nobody calculates the energy-saving difference coefficient under the constraint of economic structure. In this paper, through establishing logarithmic energy intensity panel model, we calculate energy-saving difference coefficient under the constraint of economic structure.3.Revealing the difference ralationships between the economic structures and energy intensity in different regions. Literatures usually from two perspectives research the ralationship between economic structure and energy intensity, separately study an area’s economic structure influence on energy intensity, or using regional data,establish panel models for calculating the influence of economic structure on energy intensity. In this paper,we use fixed effect constant slope model and variable slope model, study the different influences of the proportion of high energy-consuming industries, investment rate and coal consumption ratio on regional energy intensity, reveal quantities regularity of difference influences of the regional economic structure on energy intensity.Certainly,there are some questions in this article,For example, not considered the adjustment of economic structure and change. panel data is not long enough.not further studied the influence of the industrial layout on energy intensity. |
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