Research On The Effect Of Chinese Energy-Saving Approches

Since 2002, Chinese heavy and chemical industries have entered a period of rapid development, which accelerated Chinese economic growth. With the rapid economic growth, Chinese energy consumption increased rapidly. The verified reserves of energy such as coal, oil and natural gas are relatively small in China. Chinese sustainable development is facing energy, resource and environmental pressures. Therefore, Chinese government announced that energy consumption per unit GDP would be reduced by 20 percent during the eleventh five-year plan. The centre government decomposed the energy saving targets and inspected the implementation Objectives. And the government implemented lots of energy-saving measures such as direct subsidies and tax credits. This dissertation researched the energy-saving effect of industrial restructuring, technical progress, reform of energy price, energy consumption structure adjustment and energy policies. And the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on energy consumtion was studied too. Based on these, energy-saving target in new period was predicted and some proposals are given. The dissertation includes the following aspects.First, E-G cointegration and Granger causality are applied to analyze the relation between energy consumption and economic growth. The result show that there exits a long equilibrium between energy consumption and economic growth. And economic growth is the granger causality for energy consumption which indicates that economic growth lead to the increase of energy consumption. The grey incidence analysis between energy consumption and economic growth shows that the relations in different periods are not the same.Second, the energy-saving effect of technical progress in industry is studied by Cobb-Douglas Production Function in which capital, labor and energy are the three factors of production. Energy consumption per unit GDP in industry was decreased 4.26 percent by technical progress.Third, grey linear programming was applied to study the effect of industrial restructuring. The empirical researches show that industrial restructuring will lead to an increase of energy consumption per unit GDP from 2007 to 2010 and a significant decrease from 2010 to 2015.Forth, Johansen cointegration is applied to reseach the dynamic relation between energy consumption and energy prices. The results indicate that higher energy prices will decrease energy consumption in industrial sectors and household sector and will not decrease the economic growth in long run; there exit cointegration relationships among coal price, oil price and electricity price which indicate these energy products are substitutional by each other in long run; and higher energy prices can promote the development of new energy.Fifth, the Homogeneous Markov Chain and Quadratic Programming are used to study and predict the structure of Chinese energy consumption. And it is expected that China will consume more natural gas and new energy and less coal. But China will still rely on coal for most of its energy needs.Sixth, With and Without Antitheses and Linear Regression are created to evaluate the energy-saving effects of the energy policies. The main energy policies of China from 1980 were summarized, and were divided into three groups. And the energy-saving effects of these three groups of energy policies of China are evaluated by the two methods respectively. It is concluded that With and Without Antitheses is used to evaluate short-term effects and Linear Regression is used to evaluate long-term effects.Seventh, it is discussed that the influence on energy consumption and economic growth of Global Financial Crisis and the stimulus plan against it by input-output analysis. The results show that the fall of exports caused by Global Financial Crisis will lead to a decrease of 7.33% in GDP and a reduction of 9.21% in energy consumption; the stimulus plan against Global Financial Crisis will lead to an increase of 4.43% in economic growth and an increase of 1.83% in energy consumption; In the Global Financial Crisis, energy consumption per unit GDP will fall.Eighth, System Dynamics was applied to simulate the energy-economy system of China. The results of simulation show that Chinese economy will maintain a rapid growth and energy consumption per unit GDP will continuously decrease. It is expected that energy consumption per unit GDP will decrease 15% between 2010 and 2015.Ninth, some suggestions are given including the following aspects: industrial restructuring, technical progress, pricing mechanism for energy, energy consumption structure, energy-saving management system, eliminating backward technology and equipment and production capacity, publicity for energy conservation and international cooperation.