A Study On The Changes Of China’s Carbon Productivity And Its Main Influence Factors

Currently our country is at the "relative reduction" stage of carbon emissions. It still needs quite a long time to realize the reduction of total carbon emissions, or "absolute reduction". Some Research has forecast China’s carbon emissions peak between2030-2040, which means that China still needs to go for another twenty or thirty years or even longer from the current "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction ". How to walk the road, and how to coordinate the relationship between economic development and carbon emission reduction, is now an important topic to ponder and research. To this end, the paper introduces the concept of "carbon productivity", combines the two goals of promoting growth and controlling carbon dioxide emissions, studies on the changes of China’s carbon productivity and its influence factors,and explores the development path under the new situation from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction " for the rapid and stable economic growth. The research of the paper is divided into three levels.First, the paper studies the rule of carbon productivity change and the "relative reduction" stage, the "absolute reduction" stage. From "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction ", namely the relative reduction stage, is a stage that carbon productivity is raising, carbon intensity is falling, and carbon emissions is still on the increase but eventually needs to fall. From the mathematical proof, carbon productivity growth is the inevitable requirement of "relative reduction" and "absolute reduction ", and is the key to affect the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions. From the international experience, the main western developed countries have basically experienced the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions, and the length of time that they experienced has a strong connection with the carbon productivity level of entering and the carbon productivity improvement of the whole stage.Second, the paper studies the changes of China’s carbon productivity and its main influencing factors. In the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) approach, the paper sets up a carbon productivity factors analytical model, and puts the changes of carbon productivity down to the contribution of energy efficiency, energy structure, industrial structure and spatial structure. The preliminary validation show that during the eleventh five-year plan period, the main reason of the carbon productivity growth in eastern, central and western regions is the effect of energy efficiency, and the effect of industrial structure is also outstanding, while the effect of energy structure and spatial structure is affected by the constraints and much small. Then in order to further analyze the influence of factors on carbon productivity change in China, the paper studies the effect of energy efficiency on China’s carbon productivity change in the fourth chapter, and studies the effect of energy structure on China’s carbon productivity change in the fifth chapter, and studies the effect of industrial structure and spatial structure on China’s carbon productivity change in the sixth chapter.Finally, combining the above two aspects of research, the paper discusses the development path from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction". The paper suggests that it is right for China to choose "relative reduction", which follows the law of development, conforms to China’s national conditions, and has proved effective by the practice. China currently is at the relative reduction stage of carbon emissions, which is a stage of economic take-off and leapfrog development, a stage of tight resources and environment constraints, a transitional stage towards to absolute reduction, and a key stage of improving carbon productivity. From "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction" for China, the key is to greatly increase the carbon productivity, with less carbon emissions for more economic output. The point is to increase energy efficiency, improve the energy structure, and optimize the industrial structure and spatial structure, and achieve leapfrog development for China in a more low carbon way. Taking Hubei province as an example, the development path from "relative reduction" to "absolute reduction" is to greatly increase the carbon productivity by increasing energy efficiency, improving the energy structure, and walking the way of combining low-carbon Industrialization and low-carbon urbanization.