Urban Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Water Metabolism

With the development of industrialization and urbanization, a lack of water resources has become the "short plank" restraining the increase in the economy of Shijiazhuang. As an provincial capital with an obvious imbalance between supply and demand for water resources, how about its urban water resources carrying capacity(UWRCC), how much industrial added value it can afford, how many population it can support, and how many farmland it can irrigate as well as how many domestic animals it can feed, by what measures to regulate and control water resources in the future the city can protect its environment and enhance its UWRCC. All these questions have a completely realistic significance for the future social development of the city.After summarizing the research and progress into WRCC, with the beginning of the basic theoretical study of UWRCC, the dissertation discusses five aspects of issues:(1) the basic theoretical system of UWRCC is expanded and further researched, the composition, classification of water system and correlation studies between the operational process of water subsystem and UWRCC is deeply explored;(2)the definition, connotation and features is researched, and urban water resources carrying capacity based on water metabolism(UWRCCWM) is proposed according to theoretical research results;(3) the evaluation index system of UWRCC is researched, by combining theoretical analysis with the improved grey correlation degree analysis (IGCDA)candidate indices is selected, the evaluation index system of UWRCCWM is established;(4) rough set theory (RST) and its weighting method is introduced to evaluate UWRCC combining with fuzzy synthetic evaluation, and the improved introduced method is applied to assess the current UWRCC of study area;(5)the simulation model of system dynamics of UWRCCWM is constructed to conduct the research into dynamic regulation and controlling of UWRCCWM.Through the above researches several main progresses is obtained:(1)The water system theory study of basic theoretical system is deepen, the definition, composition and features of water system is studied, the relation between water metabolism system that is powered by social circulation of water and recycling and UWRCC. On the basis of the research of water metabolism process and water metabolism system, the concept of urban water metabolism system (UWMS) is defined. The study indicates that water circulation, water metabolism and water recycling are the important components of water system of urban area,the yield of urban reclaimed water and its water quality are the crucial condition of giving full play to water social metabolism. The enhancement of Water circulation and water recycling of urban water metabolism can markedly boost the status of urban water metabolism, and makes the condition of UWRCC improved at the same time.(2) The definition of UWRCC is redefined on the basis of previous research result, the concept of UWRCCWM is proposed. Thewater-system metabolic rate (WMR) is proposed to quantify the conditions of UWMS, and divides the conditions of UWMS into4levels, which lay the foundation for the quantification of the model of UWRCCWM. Different patterns of urban water metabolism and their regulation measures are explored and analyzed, which establish the theoretical basis for regulation and control of UWRCCWM under the different conditions of development programs.(3) Usingtheoretical research result to conduct theoretical analysis, and introducing grey grey correlation degree analysis combining with correlation analysis and Delphi to improve traditional grey correlation degree analysis, and employ the improved method to analyze and calculate and finally obtain21evaluation indices, under the guidance of theoretical research the index system of UWRCCWM is constructed. RSTand its weighting method that is not yet employed in current evaluation researches of WRCCis introduced, and TOPSIS model that less used in the evaluation researches, RST and TOPSIS combine with fuzzy synthetic evaluation and comprehensive weighting by entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is employed to assess the current conditions of UWRCC in every city and county of research area.(4) The simulation model of system dynamics of UWRCCWM is built, and regulates and controls UWRCC of Shijiazhuang under different pattern of urban water metabolism by the model. The results shows that under the old pattern of urban water metabolism the water resources of the Shijiazhuang urban district are capable of carrying RMB868.53billion industrial added value, supporting urban population298.35million, irrigating18.26million mu, and feeding40.25million domestic animals in2025; however, under the new pattern of urban water metabolism the water resources of the Shijiazhuang urban district are capable of carrying RMB3670.23billion industrial added value, supporting urban population763.78million, irrigating24.35million mu, and feeding83.75million domestic animals in2025.