Land Use Spatial-temporal Change And Simulation In Mining City

Mining city is considered as a typical area in the study of Land Use/Land Cover Change(LUCC). The land use change in mining city is an important content of LUCC research. In thepaper,the research method focused on the comprehensive statistics, system theory andgeography and other multi-disciplinary theories with the combination of qualitative andquantitative way. Based on the land use database in1996,2005and2009and the support of GIStechnology, the paper systematically analyses the land use, mechanism, process, trend andregularity of Wu’an in Hebei Province from the perspective of spatial-temporal scale And thendriving factor system was built by selecting significant factors,having enormous impacts on landuse change in mining cities, in the aspect of mining resources, economy, population,transportation,policy and others. Based on the study of land use change and driving forcemechanism, integrated SD models and CLUE-S model was applied into predicting the futurepattern of land use change under different scenario. The predicted result can provide a newmethod and idea for decision-makers in the process of land use planning and policy, and offer areference for land use change in other mining cities. The main research contents and results asfollowed.(1) Build a general theoretical framework for land use change mechanism in mining urban.To sort out the meaning and land use characteristics of mining cities, using a combination of landuse change, land-use dynamics, land-use change speed, land use transfer matrix and informationentropy index in the process and pattern of Wu’an land use structure. And then do an in-depthanalysis of Wu’an mining land in the aspect of distribution and spatial-pattern change.(2) Build driving factor system of mining urban land use change, and taking a typical miningcity-Wu’an as example. This chapter is also a focus throughout the article. The driving forceaffecting the mining urban land use change can divided into natural resource, mineral resource,economic driving force, traffic driving force, population resource, ecological resource andpolicy-driven force. On this basis, with the help of information entropy and correlation analysis,information entropy and gray relational analysis do an intrinsic relationship between land usechange and driving factors, and then screening out the most significant factor affecting land usechange.(3) Establish the theoretical foundation of the simulation study of land-use change. optimizeland use change model by comprehensive top-down SD model and bottom-up CLUE-S model,make full use of the prediction advantage of SD model in land use structure and CLUE-S modelin land use spatial layout.(4) Optimize land use change model is applied to a typical mining city-Wu’an and test its feasibility. The prediction scenarios consist of ecological security scenario, rapid economicdevelopment scenario and balanced economic development scenario. Under the constraints ofland use quantity prediction by SD model, to simulate land use change in spatial pattern in2020in study area. And the analysis shows that the balanced economic development is morereasonable than the others. The simulation results can provides a new way for establishing a highreliable, feasible land use planning program, and also verify the accuracy of the model in themining city.