Research On Dynamic Monitoring Of Cross-border Mergers And Acquisitions Risk Of Enterprises

With the development of economic globalization, transnational cooperation between enterprises is increasingly deepening. Multinationals play an important role in the fifth wave of mergers and acquisitions. What’s more, the breakout of financial crisis makes some developed countries run heavily into debt. Assets shrink becomes inevitable to a lot of foreign enterprises, which provides Chinese multinationals with a great opportunity to enter into international markets. However, depression of global economy, fluctuation of international exchange rate, political barriers of host counties, cultural barrier, labor conflicts,financial risks as well as some other unfavorable factors contributes to the failure of overseas mergers and acquisitions conducted by Chinese enterprises. In recent years, a lot of research is conducted concerning the motivation, strategy, the choice of location, as well as the impact on host and home countries of overseas mergers and acquisitions. Further more, several risk early warning models are created, and the approach of risk management is discussed, however, some deficiencies are as follows:firstly, the research on transnational mergers and acquisitions focus on the business itself, and the research on transnational mergers risk focus mainly on risk management, lacking of the combination of the two. Secondly, apart from some quantitative indicators, the evaluation indicators are subjective, lacking of reasonable evaluation standard. Thirdly, further research should be conducted on dynamic monitoring of transnational M&A risk. For all these reasons above, this dissertation conducts systematic research by combing the process of overseas mergers and acquisitions, risk evaluation theory and risk intelligent monitoring. On the basis of exploring risk mechanism and conducting indicator system, this dissertation builds up risk intelligent monitoring model of overseas mergers and acquisitions, and comes up with new approaches of risk management, which provides the authorities and enterprises with a reference when making decisions.For the above purpose, this dissertation attempts to solve three major problems as follows:Firstly, the risk evolution of the enterprise transnational merger and acquisition. The dissertation tries to figure out the source, the trajectory, as well as the development direction of cross-border M&A risk. How risks perform in different stage of transnational merger and acquisition? What is the logical relationship between all kinds of risk? Secondly, the construction of enterprise transnational merger and acquisition risk monitoring indicator system. Since the factors are very complex, how to identify the key indicators? How to solve the problem of inconsistent evaluation indicators? Thirdly, the decision-making process of overseas mergers and acquisitions risks. How to make a combination of M&A theory and practice? How to make a combination of M&A evaluation and cases? To solve the three problems, this dissertation combines three kinds of approaches:the problem-oriented approach, the method-oriented approach and case-oriented approach. Based on the driving factors and the characteristics of Chinese enterprises, this dissertation analyses the evolution mechanism of transnational merger and acquisition risk. Based on the risk early warning theory, risk evaluation theory, rough set theory, decision tree theory, Strategic environment analysis theory, the energy release theory as well as the Kopf chain theory, this dissertation focuses on risk evolution mechanism, dynamic risk monitoring model as well as the construction of enterprise transnational merger and acquisition risk monitoring indicator system. Started from a case study of enterprise cross-border M&A, this dissertation conducts a empirical research, which provides a new approach on the study of cross-border M&A risk management.Through the above study, the main achievements of this dissertation are as follows:(1) Setting up3D analysis framework of enterprise transnational risk. This dissertation will combine transnational mergers and acquisitions’ risk environment, transnational mergers and acquisitions’ business processes and transnational risk elements together, from the space, time and content level to analyze transnational risk of enterprises systematically.(2) Exploration of transnational merger and acquisition of the enterprise risk evaluation mechanism. From internal and external aspects, this dissertation explores the motivation of transnational risk evolution. On the basis of this, this dissertation analyses key elements of transnational risk evolution from risk sources, risk flows, risk events, risk carrier, risk evolution chain. Then it analyzes transnational risk evolution chain based on environmental analysis and operational processes.(3) Setting up a transnational M&A risk dynamic decision system for enterprises. This dissertation constructs dynamic monitoring model of transnational mergers and acquisitions risk, including risk evolution monitoring model, risk dynamic assessment model and risk dynamic decision model. Among all these models, risk evolution monitoring model monitors the probability of risk evolution and finds out the key sources of risk based on the theory of Markov chain. Risk early warning and monitoring model integrates risk warning theory, comprehensive evaluation theory and information entropy theory to evaluate, early warn and monitor the degree of risk. On the basis of rough set theory, genetic algorithms and decision tree theory, risk dynamic decision model explores the risk dynamic decision rules based on the risk early warning and monitoring results to help companies make transnational risk decisions.(4) Building the enterprise transnational risk indicator system. From the external risk and internal risk dimensions, this dissertation constructs transnational risk dynamic monitoring indicators system of enterprises including political and legal risk, economic risk, social risk, industry risk, market risk, financial risk, strategic decision-making of transaction risk, integration risk. Based on the establishment of dynamic risk monitoring indicators library, it designs the identification pattern of risk indicators.