The Uncertainty In The Economic System And Its Structural Research

Mainstream economics has followed Marshall, Walras equilibrium thought, eitherstatic analysis or dynamic analysis. But Marshall, Walras equilibrium analysis theory isactually a deterministic theory in economics to analyze the specific application.However, the reality of economic reality is full of uncertainty, the whole economicsystem is a system of certainty and uncertainty are intertwined, interdependence. Toachieve between the certainty and uncertainty of the cycle is the essence of economicfacts. Equilibrium thought of mainstream economics, or evolutionary economics hasnot formed a complete theoretical system about uncertainty, it is difficult to constructindependent thinking and reasoning with internal logic consistency. Most of the resultsare only sporadic ideological inspiration, and no comparative analysis with unifiedspecification. This paper is about the theoretical defects of evolutionary economics andmainstream economics on the limitations of comprehensive layout and argumentation,trying to construct a new economics of independent economic reality analysis paradigm.Economic system is not completely deterministic, nor is uncertain, therefore, theresearch object of economics is not only deterministic, also is not the only uncertainty,but to transform relation between the two comprehensive study. The paper waslaunched from the angle of the basic attributes of economic reality. First I carry on theanalysis principle of deterministic system, the rule of the economy to run undercertainty, the basic theorem of certainty, as well as the principle of uncertainty analysis.The knight and Keynes’s uncertainty basic definition are based on economic time, thehomogeneity and heterogeneity. I analyze the proof of regularity and attributeuncertainty, and then draw the fundamental theorem of uncertainty. After analyzing thecertainty and uncertainty principle, and expansion of certainty and uncertainty, througha structured way, I realize the uncertain economic system to certainty into equilibrium.This process is essential to the economic system properties, is also the core content ofeconomics research. Structured uncertainty process includes economic growth,industrial upgrading and other factors, also includes economic innovation andreplication. Implementation of the key factors for a structured process is the ignoranceof human nature. Ignorance attribute refers to the lasting psychological motivation ofexploring the unknown areas, seeking new things, which is the whole structured mental energy. Theignorance of human attribute uncertainty produces "surplus promoter behavior", amomentary behavior surplus production is structured uncertainty, also is the newgenerated profits. Specific performance of structured is the economic operation systemcomposed of entrepreneurs, division of labor, organization and currency etc.After the analysis and construction of the end of the theoretical framework, thispaper will use the analysis paradigm of analysis to understand the reality of economicevents. Attention is focused on how to realize the macroeconomic stable growthproblem. According to the United States of America1929-1933economic depression,the Soviet Union "shock therapy", Japan after the nineteen ninties long-term economicstagnation and Chinese economic reform and opening up analysis, the implementationof policies and principles of macroeconomic equilibrium growth are achieved. Ensuringthe dual mode between government and the market, we should take the third road. Thegovernment adjust the policy continuously according to the requirement of the trend ofeconomic running, and ensure the continuity and stability of policies and standards,avoid efficiency loss caused by the structural change, and thus the overall economicgrowth ability. The market plays fully the role of coordination in specific areas, hasovercome the standardized policy allocation efficiency loss, to ensure that the allocationefficiency in economic operation. Mutual supports on allocation efficiency andstructural efficiency can achieve steady growth of macro economy.