A Study On The Impact Of Changes Of World Petroleum Supply And Demand On China’s Petroleum Imports

With the continuous development of emerging economies in Asia and other continents, the pattern of oil consumption which was ever headed by Europe and America has been changed by the remarkably fast increase of demand in the developing countries since the beginning of the21st century. Moreover, the core producing region in Mideast was broken step by step with the growth in oil exploration and exportation. As far as China is concerned, National prosperity and international political status were enhanced by the fast economy growth, while oil consumption was also climbing up to a high level. Because the speed of oil producing is far slower than the speed of economy development, the oil gap was enlarged more and more, as well as oil external dependence. To obtain enough, stable overseas oil resources and oil importation are the two key maneuvers for China to fill up the oil gap and deal with the energy problems.In this dissertation, literature review, information researching, compared analysis and qualitative description were used to analyze the pattern of producing and consumption, oil trade and oil price fluctuations which influence the oil importation.This dissertition is divided eight chapters. The first chapter analyzes the background and significance of this study, and reviewed the domestic and foreign scholars in recent years in the oil import strategy. Based on previous theoretical contributions, the research method and main idea were developed and the innovation was put forward.By the ways of theory review, two classical international trade theories including theory of absolute advantage written by Adam Smith and theory of comparative advantage written by David Ricardo were described in detail in second chapter, we also made a thorough inquiry of the theory of export-oriented economy and theory of international trade strategy and expounded the positive impacts of international trade on the basis of above theories.The third part made a detailed description about the world oil producing and demand. First, the world oil producing and geographical distribution were surveyed by the reference, which helped us to well know the oil importation source. Second, the oil supply and demand were analyzed, which helped us understand the oil gap in the world. At last, the transformation of oil demand from Europe and America to Asia was particularly described in the second chapter.Because of the transformation of oil consumption and enlargement of oil gap, more and more hidden troubles came out with the economy development in China. In the fourth chapter we elaborate the conversion between the production and demand after China’s reform and opening-up. Thus showed further China has entered the ranks of the oil-dependent countries and oil import strategy will has a far-reaching effect on China’s oil security. In fifth chapter, the present situation of oil exportation and importation in China and the factors affecting the oil importation illustrated China’s oil importation characteristics.The fluctuations in oil prices seriously influenced the economy of china in2008, so the influence of fluctuations in oil price on the safety of oil importation was picked up sorely, which made a strong base for the later strategies of sustainable development in China’s oil importation.China’s oil imports to establish sustainable development strategy is based on two fundamental standpoint, As far as it described above, we knew that China’s oil importation must follow a road of sustainable development, which meant that we must use the economical base as a powerful support to strengthen the cooperation in the region of oil trade, especially with the Africa, Western Asia and other countries in the world. Moreover, we must correctly deal with the world oil trade organization, and finally realize the scientific forecast on oil price while confront trade barriers in order. Accelerate the implementation of the diversification of oil import channels, the implementation of a comprehensive oil diplomacy "going out"approach, thoroughly to "international management", expansion of scale, increase share, to ensure the safety of oil importatior in china.Finally, in the eighth chapter of the full text, we explain the positive meaning of rational oil imports strategy for China’s economic development, particularly in the transformation of economic growth and sustainable development.