| The innovation and development of pension theoretical study and the concrete practices of the pension reform always complement each other. In other words, the concrete practices of the pension reform enrich the content of pension theoretical study, promote the innovation and development of the pension theoretical study; and the innovation achievements boost the concrete practices of the pension reform in return, and lead the direction and specific policy orientation. After entering the21st century, the realization of a long-term sustainable development of pension system has become an overall goal of every country in terms of the reform of pension system; the establishment of a pension system of urban and rural balance and sustainable development also remains the focal and difficult points for China currently to build a basic system of social security system that covers both rural and urban residents. The concrete practices of the reform of pension system objectively demands a well-defined basic connotation and internal needs of its system design, in a move to clarify the target location of a sustainable pension system reform, and also in a move to choose correctly the system’s optimized mode of a sustainable pension system reform. The thesis puts the sustainable pension system as the study object and regards the establishment of a theoretical analysis frame of sustainable pension system as the main body, and considers scientific definition of the basic connotation of sustainable pension system and the internal needs of its system design as a major task, in a bid to put forward the target location of a sustainable pension system reform and its system optimized mode. Without a doubt, the thesis’s study has important theoretical value and realistic significance.The thesis bases on interdisciplinary study, integrates the theories and methods of Economics, Sociology, Political Science and Demography, establishes an overall analysis frame about a sustainable pension system through the integration and innovation of theories, emphasizes clearly defining theoretically the basic connotations of a sustainable pension system and its institutional design’s internal needs, in order to lay a solid theoretical basis to clarify the target location of a sustainable pension system reform and the system optimized mode. The thesis bases on the angle of comparative institutional analysis, systemically analyzes concrete policy orientations in terms of pension reforms worldwide since the1980’s and the inspirations to China’s pension system reform, and explores deeply the system constraint conditions for the reform on pension system, and clarifies the target location of the reform of sustainable pension system. The thesis bases itself upon the actual national situation and the basic trend of future social and economic development of China in transition period, sufficiently considers the path dependency of the evolution of the existing pension system, and clearly proposes the target location of China’s sustainable pension system reform and the optimized path of the system.The thesis consists of8chapters and4appendices, with the main study contents and opinions of every chapter as follows:Chapter1Introduction puts forward the research question of the paper, analyzes shortages of existing researches at home and abroad, points out the theoretical value and the realistic significance of the study, and briefly introduces the basic train of thought, overall frame and main study methods in the paper.Chapter2firstly bases on different classification criteria, then puts out a whole range of classification dimensions regarding the pension system, whose aim is to define the concept system of pension system used in the thesis. Afterwards, using double-ended overlapping-generations model, through pay-as-you-go defined benefit system(NDB model), the financial defined contribution system (FDC model) and non-financial defined contribution system (NDC model), the three main types of contributory pension system’s internal rate of return, the thesis launches theoretical deduction and comparative study, accordingly analyzes the economics cores of the operational mechanisms of the three pension systems, in a move to raise a measurable economic theory explanation frame for the model selection of the pension system. The chapter bases on main characteristics and reform process of NDC-model pension systems in six countries in Europe and Asia(for more information, please refer to Appendix1), explains the origin of NDC-model pension system in the angle of Political Economics, and briefly introduces the source and theoretical basis of NDC-model pension system and the basic structure as well as the financial balance mechanism of the NDC-model pension system.Chapter3firstly bases on theories and methods of Demography, analyzes the determinants to boost population aging process, and depicts the macro-background and long-term development trend of the global population’s age structural transformation. Given that in a relatively long period of time, the population aging process has become the irreversible development trend of population’s age structure in most parts of the world, the chapter also uses the double-ended overlapping-generations model, introduces the calculation formula for computing the rate of financial deficit on the total economic output, and compares the population aging process’s long-term financial balance influences and effects as well as policy implications on the3main contributory pension system through analyzing the monotonic of a function, and clearly points out that at the present stage, the three contributory pension systems cannot fundamentally avoid the effects of the population aging process. And one key factor of the sustainable development of the pension system is the economic output and its growth, and a sustainable pension system should promote the long-term economic growth by certain transmission mechanism.Chapter4relies on Neo-classical Growth Theory represented by Slow Growth Model to explore existing research ideas, analyses and compares long-term growth effects and transmission mechanism of different pension systems regarding the arrangement of pension system and the accumulation of material capital, the arrangement of pension system and manpower capital accumulation, the retirement decisions of laborers and labor market liquidity, the arrangement of pension system and total factor productivity, the relations between the four aspects. The thesisr’s researches show that as the fully-funded pension system is introduced, the scale of pension funds becomes gradually larger and larger, which is a fact without question, however, the pension fund will promote total factor productivity and produce noticeable positive effects on the long-term economic growth through boosting the improvement and development of the financial market especially capital market and through positive engagement in corporate governance.Chapter5, however, starts from the sustainable development of pension system and the internal logic of protections provided for all the old with reliable, clearly-foreseeable, sufficient old age income support, analyses the constraint conditions of expanding pension system coverage and possible policy choices, the characteristics of different pension system’s redistribution of income and the risk characteristics. The analysis in the chapter shows that, the establishment of a non-contributory pension system will benefit the expansion of the pension system’s coverage, the prevention of poverty of the old and effective reduction of poverty occurrence of the aged group. Therefore, at the same time when every country steps up the level of interaction between contribution and the pension treatment, they pay more attention to introducing non-contributory pension system, and rationally determine the target location of the diversity of non-contributory pension system and the structure of a multi-layer pension system.Chapter6bases on the basic connotation and the internal needs of its institutional design of a sustainable pension system from analysis above-mentioned in the thesis, clearly puts out the target location and its constraint conditions of a universal-applicable sustainable pension system reform. In rapid sequence, the thesis systemically analyses concrete policy orientations(for detailed information, please refer to Appendix2,3and4) of pension system reforms worldwide in the1980s, and extracts some which inspire the policy points for China’s pension system reform. The chapter’s analysis indicate that the goal must be the protecting social justice and the basis of structural elasticity of system and realizing a just and efficient balance concerning the long-term sustainable development as an overall goal. Experiences and empirical tests from pension system reforms worldwide also show that the reform policy orientations of a sustainable pension system should be centered on:first, positively implement parameter-type reforms in a move to improve the financial balance situation of pension system; second, develop a diverse and multi-layer pension system structure; third, establish a combined pension system of pay-as-you-go and fully-funded ones; fourth, rationally define responsibility orientations of governments, market organizations, companies and individuals in the pension system.Chapter7starts from the path dependency of the separate development in rural and urban areas of China’s pension system, reviews the historical evolution of urban enterprise staff basic pension system, pension system in government departments and institutions and social old-age insurance system in rural areas, and bases on the internal needs of a sustainable pension system and its institutional design, evaluates the sustainability of China’s existing pension system, whose aim is to clarify the path dependency of China’s reform on a sustainable pension system. The chapter’s analysis showes that the sustainability of China’s existing pension system faces many institutional barriers, mainly including:the coexistence of deformity in the existing pension systems and separation of system, the development trend of system fragmentation is noticeable, the core values of justice, equality and sharing have not been fully realized; unclear responsibility orientations of governments, market organizations, companies and individuals in the pension system structure, and the multi-layer pension system has not been truly established; the existing "the combination of social overall funds with personal account" model lacks validity severely in terms of urban company staff and basic old-age insurance system, directly impacting the long-term sustainable development of China’s pension system.Chapter8firstly analyzes the actual national conditions and the basic trend of future economic development of China in transition period, clarifies the social and economic conditions to enable China a sustainable pension system reform, in a move to raise the target location and system optimized path of China’s sustainable pension system reform. The chapter’s analysis show the target location of China’s sustainable pension system reform should be:to establish a rationally-concentrated, rationally-arranged, diverse and multi-layer pension system structure which puts contributory pension system as the main body, and non-contributory pension system as supplementary, and with the combination of economic guarantee and service guarantee, that covers all urban and rural residents, with a unified structure. Based on the real constrains and its sustainable pension system reform’s target location in terms of China’s pension system establishment, currently the system optimized path of China’s sustainable pension system reform should be:to further improve the pension system for urban company staff, and gradually establish a pension system that covers all urban laborers, government-dominated, of labor and capital separation of responsibilities, with mutual help and with the combination of social planning and individual accounts, and real account operations of individual accounts, as well as the basic pension covers urban company staff nationwide with planning; promote the reform of retirement pension system in institutions based on the reform of institutional units classifications, and establish basic pension system and annual salary system of public employees; improve a new type of pilot program for rural social endowment insurance, and build a basic pension system that covers all the rural residents, and with the combination of social planning and individual accounts; and establish a non-contributory old-age allowance system that covers rural and urban residents in order to sufficiently realize the policy goal of preventing old-age poverty, and effectively reducing the poverty occurrence of old-age group.Main innovations in the thesis include:(1)The initial establishment of a theoretical analysis frame of sustainable pension system. The thesis bases on the interdisciplinary study angle in the bases of sufficiently grasping research achievements of related pension systems and reforms at home and abroad, integrates theories and methods of Economics, Sociology, Political Science and Demography, introduces a series of partial and separated information into the overall analysis frame of sustainable pension system through the integration and innovation of theories, clarifies the logic relations between every phenomenon theoretically, in order to establish a theoretical analysis frame of sustainable pension system.(2)Enriching and developing the economics analysis frame of pension system and the long-term economic growth.The inclusion of total factor productivity helps clarify the transmission mechanism of the total factor productivity and pension model in order to enrich and develop the theoretical analysis frame of pension system and the long-term economic growth. The theoretical analysis frame of pension system and the long-term economic growth mainly focuses on the analysis of relations between pension system and material capital accumulation, the pension system and the manpower capital accumulation and the pension system and the labour market and behaviors. The thesis creatively introduces the total factor productivity which is an important variable of long-term economic growth, and establishes the transmission mechanism for pensions fund to raise the total factor productivity, i.e. the pension fund benefits the improvement of the total factor productivity through promoting the financial market especially capital market, through actively engagement in corporate governance, in a move to enrich and develop the economic analysis frame of pension system and long-term economic growth.(3)The thesis provides a clear definition of the basic connotations and the internal needs of system design regarding the sustainable pension system, and empirical tests of concrete practices worldwide in terms of pension system reform implemented, determined target location, constraint conditions and system optimized basically path of sustainable pension system reform through comparing system analysis.(4)The thesis removes the obstacles of mindset inertia in terms of the separated development of rural and urban pension systems, clarifies the target location of China’s sustainable pension system reform and the planned development,dynamic integration and effective path of urban and rural pension systems based on the research angle of the planned development of rural and urban pension system and focused on the long-term sustainable development of rural and urban systems as an overall aim. The thesis doesn’t study the pension system reform of urban company’s staff alone, doesn’t stay in the establishment and improvement of social pension system in rural areas. The thesis combines the two into a study frame of urban and rural balance, long-term sustainable pension system. The writer believes that whether it is the further reform of urban company staff’s basic pension system, or the improvement of rural social pension insurance system, they must base on the strategic height of the planned development of rural and urban pension systems, which must match well with the actual needs of the dramatic transition of China’s social and economic structure, especially they must be able to suit the transition of employment method for rural laborers and the actual needs of region migration for urban and rural laborers. Only in the unified analysis frame of rural and urban pension systems, can the old-age guarantee problems for new groups generated in the dramatic transition of social and economic structure, including migrant workers, land expropriated peasants can be solved. And this is helpful to tackle the continuous migration problems in the relations of old-age insurance for urban company’s staff fundamentally, and this can help to achieve the grate goal of establishing a social security system that covers all urban and rural residents. |
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