Study On Government Investment Decision-making System Evolution Mechanism And Simulation

Decision-making on government investment projects is the construction of such investment that is an important part of the investment project work. Decision-making work that can achieve the desired economic and social benefits may play a key role. Since the irreversibility of the construction project, so the decision-making system including the decision-making body and the various elements associated with decision-making is for making the success of the project at stake. Based on the theory of complex adaptive systems, government investment project sought to explore the complex nature of decision-making system and complex adaptive content, as well as government investment project decision-making mechanism of the evolution of the system, with a view to investment projects for the government decision-making scientific and reasonable to provide new ideas.This major research work includes:(1) Decision-making system of government investment project is composed of two elements of decision-making body and the various elements associated with decision-making, to explore the complexity of the decision-making system, based on the theory of complex adaptive systems characteristics from decision-making system and discusses two aspects of decision-making mechanisms of complex adaptive systems sex, and that decision-making system is a complex adaptive system, the mechanism for the evolution of proof lay the foundation for decision-making system.(2)The intrinsic motivation of the evolution of decision-making system will be explored. The adaptability body is the main core of elements composed of complex adaptive systems, but also is body of the evolution of the main system. The adaptability body of decision-making system is the main intrinsic motivation about decision-making systems evolution and that is the evolution dynamic of decision-making system.(3) The environment of the evolution of decision-making system will be built. Information resource condition that is support of the environment is the basis for evolution. The structure of the environment of evolution will include the four components of the mechanisms for incentive and restraint and the mechanisms for responsibilities inside, and the political and legal environment, governance and social environment outside.(4) The evolution of mechanisms of decision-making system is proved from the adaptive learning mechanism and genetic algorithm. Adaptive learning mechanism of decision-making system by genetic algorithm in two steps-credit assignment mechanism and the new discovery rules are discussed. Mechanism for decision-making system in the emergence of environmental effects, structural effects and size effects are discussed in three areas, and build decision-making system-level model used to explain the emergence of the emerging nature.(5) Dynamic analysis for decision-making system in steady-state, which will be analysis that is based on system dynamics feedback mechanism from the decision-making body and decision-making elements.(6) Under the guidance of the theory of Multi-Agent-based modeling system, the simulation experiments of decision-making system will be implemented on the NetLogo which is platform about simulation experiments of complex adaptive systems.This dissertation including the following conclusions:government investment project decision-making is the complex system engineering. The decision-making system is the complex adaptive system that the system structure is a complex and multi-dimensional association body. The adaptive learning and the emergence of decision-making system will occur under the joint action of the evolution dynamics insidely and the evolution environment outsidely, in order to achieve the system evolution. The evolution function will promote decision-making system to become the whole which is scientific, rational and completing decision-making tasks efficiently.The main innovation of this dissertation is reflected in:The dissertation reveals Decision-making system of government investment project which is composed of two elements of decision-making body and the various elements associated with decision-making evolutes through adaptive learning and the emergence of steady state from the new theory perspective; and the simulation for decision-making system is the use of simulation software.However, due to the limited on space constraints, my level and time, this dissertation is inadequate. This dissertation needs to be improvement and optimization furtherly.