| In the late 1970s reform and opening-up, with the rapid growth of social economy and the easing of population migration management, significant changes have taken place in the inter-provincial population migration in China. People tend to choose more superior life areas, because the unbalanced distribution of regional natural resources, climate, choice of employment and education resources. At present, China is undergoing the most large population migration activity in peacetime of the human history. The population migration activity has greatly changed the population quantity, distribution and composition characteristics of different provinces and natural climate zone, and greatly influences all aspects of the society, economy and culture. Researching the scale of inter-provincial migration, the direction, the intensity and the regional differences on the space position is good for reasonable allocation the labor and material resources between areas, and realizing the sustainable development.This thesis using "the fourth census" (year 1990), "the fifth census" (year 2000) and "the sixth census" (year 2010) to analyze and study the spatial distribution, characteristics and influence factors of the inter-provincial population migration of 31 provinces and cities in mainland China’s. On the basis of the data of "the fourth census", "the fifth census" and "the sixth census" to analyze the spatial distribution rules of inter-provincial population migration and the spatial and temporal variations of the population migration between the four areas (the eastern coastal areas, the central region, northeast and the west China).This thesis also use the GIS software (ArcGIS10.0) to express the spatial distribution characteristics of different profession, level of education and gender of inter-provincial migration. In addition, the wills of population migration changed with the time are well researched in this paper. Furthermore, this thesis examine in detail the impact of different factors on the inter-provincial population migration, and the regression models are established by the Matlab software to evaluate the influence of various factors coefficient.Through the above research, the main conclusions are as follows:The inter-provincial migration population increase from 11.06 million to 54.99 million from the "fourth census" period to the "sixth census" period in China. And the population migration accumulation and diffusion zone are gradually formed. However, different regions are very large differences in inter-provincial migration scale. The eastern coastal areas, which is the accumulation zone of inter-provincial migration, is the most active region that has the great population flow with the other parts of the provincial. The central region is the area of origin of inter-provincial population migration, a large amount of population flowing into other areas. The inter-provincial migration of northeast China is not active, which has the smaller population flow with the northwest China and the central parts of China. While the most inter-provincial migration population flow into the eastern coastal areas from the northeast China. Provinces in western China are mainly in the west of "Hu Huanyong line". During the period of "fourth census" and the "filth census", the western region with a positive net inter-provincial migration scale, which has the largest population move to Xinjiang Province, it is related to "the western development strategy". However, in "sixth census" period, due to a large number of the population of the western region move into the eastern coastal areas, the net inter-provincial migration population in western region becomes negative. With the rapid development of society and economy, population is mainly flow to the regions with low altitude, developed economy, higher urbanization degree, because such areas have the perfect infrastructure and public service. This phenomenon reflects that people wants to increase economic income, improve the living environment, and seeking more development opportunity through migration. On the other hand, the region people who move out is almost with lower resources and environmental carrying capacity, inadequate economic growth vigor, less employment opportunities, and lower income level.The proportion of inter-provincial migration population with different professions in each province is different during the different periods. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of that is different either. Production and transportation person, enterprises and related person, business and service personnel and professional and technical personnel gradually formed the trend that they prefer to move to the eastern coastal provinces. The geographic region and economic advantage of eastern coastal areas is the main reason for these kinds of people who want to move to the eastern coastal areas. This phenomenon reflects that people want to seek more and better jobs through migration. In addition, the inter-provincial migration population educated under the college diploma would like to move to the eastern coastal areas, but the inter-provincial migration population educated above the college diploma (include the college diploma) mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of China. And there are many teaching and research units distributed in these areas. This illustrates that highly educated people not only considered the economy factor, but also considered other factors when choice the ingoing ground, such as house prices and work units.The male and female inter-provincial migration population all tend to migrate to the eastern coastal areas, and the female is more concentrated than male. The gender ratio of the migrant with different professions is different. People who work in agriculture, forestry and fishing field is female-dominated, and other professions are male-dominated. Secondly, the gender ratio of the migrant with different level of education is not the same. A person who has not been to school is female-dominated, with the increase of education degree, male inter-provincial migration population become dominant. In addition, the number of the female inter-provincial migration population of different professions has increased, their education level also gradually improve.During the "fourth census" period, the proportion of all kinds of migration wills is relatively balanced. People who migrate to other regions because of the relatives accounts 30%, which is the main migration will. During the "sixth census" period, work in business (70%) becomes the main migration will. The proportion of migration wills of inter-provincial migration population has significant difference in different areas and different gender. During the period of "fourth and sixth census", the male inter-provincial migration population of each region mainly migrates to other areas for work in business, especially in the period of "sixth census". The main migration wills of the female inter-provincial migration population of each region are complex, mainly including marriage, work in business, families and relatives during the "fourth census" period; while during the "sixth census" period, work in business become the main migration will.In this thesis, we calculate the correlation coefficients between inter-provincial migration population and other factors (population structure, employment structure, the level of economic development, human development index, distance and environmental factors), then build linear regression models. The results indicate the "pulling factors" (including social and economic factors:the level of urbanization, income and consumption; employment structure:the proportion of people in the secondary and tertiary industry; human development index) of ingoing places is the main factor to effect the inter-provincial population migration, and the influence of "pulling factors" of ingoing places is increasing from 1995-2000 year to 2005-2010 year. Secondly, the population size of outgoing place is the important "push factor" to the inter-provincial population migration, that is more inter-provincial migration population coming from the large population province, and the "push factor" is slightly increased from 1995-2000 year to 2005-2010 year. The results present that more inter-provincial migration population come from the high density of population province and move into the higher density of population province. In the meantime, distance factors (the adjacent index and the shortest distant among provinces) limits the inter-provincial migration population, people are like to move the adjacent provinces, but the inhibition is gradually weakened due to more convenience transportation and migration policy changes. Although the inter-provincial migration people begin to pay attention to urban green area during 2005-2010 year, the air pollution index (PM10, the SO2 and NO2 concentration in the air of ingoing places) don’t affect the inter-provincial migration people. In a word, the effect of living environment and air quality on inter-provincial migration people is not obvious before 2010 year.Based on the research of the census data of three periods, this thesis found that people tend to migrate to the eastern coastal region with lower altitude, developed economy, more job opportunities. This trend will increase the differences of population distribution between regions. Therefore, our country should intensify the economic development of the west and central region, increase the attraction of the west and central region, and thus reduce the pressure on the eastern part of China. |
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