| Online rumors are products of the times. The emergence of massive application under Web2.0 environment provides media for the rise of online rumors, also, the spread of "We-Media" and social networks provide rich content for online rumors. In the information asymmetric space of the Internet, as a special form of Internet information dissemination, online rumors are so popular to incite people, attack opponents, express demands or vent their emotions. The anonymity of the Internet leads to secrecy of the spreading of rumors, the attitude changes of the netizen group are more complex and group interaction are more intense under the diversified network structures. The unceasing emergency of hot spots of the Internet has shortened the life cycle of the rumors but expanded the social influence caused by online rumors. Therefore, the accurate understanding of the evolution rules of online rumors is a prerequisite to improve the efficiency of social information and it’s also the ensurance of information security.The secrecy and burstiness of the spreading of online rumors leads to the difficulty of access to rumor information and netizen collective behavior, so most of the scholars confine their study of online rumors to case analysis and qualitative research, or just explore the mathematical model of topic propagation and opinion interaction without experimental or empirical research, so it’s difficult to grasp the rules of dissemination and evolution of online rumors systematically. Moreover, the collecting of first-hand data of the spreading of online rumors is also very difficult in the research. On the other hand, the nature of the spreading of online rumors is information interaction behaviors of netizens, affaceted by individual factors such as character, habits, preferences, and manifest as group attitude of the netizens, thus the foundation of understanding and responding to online rumors is how the netizen attitude forms in the spreading of online rumors and how the opinion interaction of netizens influence the spreading of online rumors topics. This paper attempts to study the topic spreading of online rumors and co-evolution of attitude interaction of netizens, to understand the evolution characteristics and rules of online rumors.In order to collect the first-hand data of spreading of online rumors, the third chapter of this paper starts from studying on the netizen interactive behaviors of the spreading of rumour topics. Three rumors of different themes were designed and a two-month experiment in specific group using social experiment method was carried out, and data collection questionnaires were designed by using ways of brainstorming, expert consultation and pre-experiment. By acquisition of experiment data of online rumors, the result concluded the attitude, behavior and preference information of the experiment object of online rumors through statistical analysis.In order to analyze the relationship between netizen interaction and topic evolution in the spreading of online rumors, the fourth chapter of this paper studies the evolution of netizen attitude by using a classification algorithm in Data Mining, summarizes the evolution rules of netizen attitude in the spreading of online rumors and studies on the collective behavior in the spreading of online rumors by using clustering algorithm, obtains a classification system and the specific ratio of four types of role groups, which are believing and spreading rumours type, rational confirmation type, information browsing type and non-participation type. This provides data reference for complex system modeling for online rumors.In order to analyze the mechanism of topic evolution and netizen interactive co-evolution in the spreading of online rumors, the fifth chapter of this paper constructs a complex system for the spreading of online rumors by applying method of computational experiments. The attributes and rules of behaviors of three main type of agent including platform service provider, media and netizen in the spreading of online rumors are abstracted. A simulation experiment is designed to study the supervision, channel and netizen participation in the evolution of online rumors from the perspective of three main categories. Finally, the general rules of the spreading of online rumors are concluded and could provide theoretical support for responding to and regulatory of online rumors.The contributions of this paper could be in the following directions. (1)In the analysis of online rumor spreading and derivation, the approach of social experiment was introduced and experiment regarding online rumor spreading was carried out, the first-hand data of topic spreading and collective attitude behaviors in the spreading of online rumor was obtained, rules including the content decides the media, forgetting mechanism, jumping propagation of topics, views change based on group consistency were discovered. (2)In the study of collective attitude and behavior in online rumor spreading, the mechanism of netizen collective attitude evolution was analyzed, relationship between netizen collective attitude and initial recognition as well as no relationship between collective attitude transition rate and topic content was concluded. Also netizen collective behavior was analyzed, the behavior rules of four types of role groups in online rumor spreading was declared, the four types are believing and spreading rumors type, rational confirmation type, information browsing type and non-participation type. (3)The spreading and evolution of online rumor was explored, the approach of co-evolution modeling in Spatial System Dynamics was introduced to collaborative analyze the process of online rumor evolution, and agent model and behavior rules of collaborative system were designed. An approach of computational experiment in system science was introduced, a complex system model of online rumor spreading was constructed, the influence of agent, media and netizen agent in the system was explored by carrying out simulation experiment, and the general rules of online rumor evolution was obtained.There are also some limitations in this study. (1) The social experiment in the spreading of online rumors were not perfect in the selection of experiment object, content design, collection of questionnaire information and social networks describtion. (2) The index involved in the analysis of netizen attitude and behavior and attitude data continuity was not enough. (3) Hypothesis of complex system model for online rumors spreading was restricted by the analysis conclusion of social experiment, the agent attribute and rules were not enough, social network relationship was not supposed and the macroscopic factors such as rumor topic, group tendency and interest relevance were not fully considered. |
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