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Research Of Emergency Management For Infectious Disease Based On Complex Networks

Posted on:2014-01-05Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J XuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1224330398987605Subject:Public safety warning and emergency management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The main work of this study was the research of emergency management for infectious disease based on complex networks. The effects of infectious diseases to human health were obvious and it was likely to cause panic and turbulence of the whole society seriously when it was prevalent. It has very important theory value and practical significance of the formulation reasonable outbreaks of infectious diseases prevention and control strategy on the basis of clarifying the regulation mechanism, transmission of infectious diseases.The network of social contacts formed between individual is complex network. In this paper, infectious disease dynamics model was adopted and mathematical analysis method was used to deduce the effect on the spread of disease because of network structure change speed. We got the conclusion that the influence to disease spreading caused by the change on social contact network structure can be equivalent to the change of disease spread probability, which meant that the spread of disease in the dynamic network can be equivalent to the static spread in network; the different was only the change of the spread probability. This conclusion provides a new thought and method for the study of infectious diseases spread process.It provided a new research perspective by using multiple Agent modeling and simulation method which could include all the factors into a unified model framework in complex system to understand the spread of infectious diseases for diseases prevention and control. In this paper a general framework for infectious diseases prevention and control in complex network based on Agent simulation measure was proposed by combining the complex network with Agent modeling and simulation. And strategies of disease prevention and control was implemented on NetLogo platform, then the results was analyzed and evaluated, so to provide valuable decision-making reference to effectively respond to emergencies of infectious diseases.After the emergency response strategy and measures was laid down, managers would still face the problem of how to effectively provide related emergency resources and services in the shortest possible time. Perfect and timely emergency resources security can be greatly reduced the event losses."Last Mile" is very important when encountering threats to public health security. In the light of this point, a model for emergency facility location during public health emergency response was described and Hybrid intelligent algorithm was proposed in this paper to solve the model. This achieved good results which could provide accurate and quick decisions for emergency managers.Lastly, A comprehensive framework for emergency management of infectious diseases was build based on the spread of infectious disease emergency, centered on events, object, and emergency management this three mutual influence and restriction aspects, Science-based emergency management of infectious disease was discussed. The ultimate goal of this research is to provide a new train of thought and scientific theoretical basis and reference method for emergency decision making and policy making of public health emergency.
Keywords/Search Tags:Emergency Management, Public health emergency, Infectious Disease, Complex Networks, Agent-based modeling and simulation
PDF Full Text Request
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