Research On The Application Of MADM In Flood Risk Evaluation

In the human society, decision-making problems have multi-objective and multi-attributecharacteristics. Multi-objective/attribute decision-making (MADM) problems arerelevance, incommensurability and even contradiction among objects. Flood riskevaluation has common characteristics the same to decision-making problems and belongsto the category of MADM. Flood risk evaluation is one of the important link of the floodcontrol and disaster reduction, reflect the flood possibility and post-disaster loss.Accordingly, the study presents advanced theory and methods of MADM applied into thedecision-making process of flood risk factors modeling, flood disaster loss evaluation andflood comprehensive risk analysis. It undoubtedly provides a new research approach forflood risk evaluation.In view of the particularity of the flood risk analysis, this article presents four aspectsof thorough research: the MADM mathematical model analysis, flood risk factorsmodeling analysis, flood disaster losses evaluation and flood comprehensive risk decision,and obtains some theoretical and practical results. The main research work and innovationresults are described as follows:(1) Considering the needs of flood risk evaluation decision-making, the thesisestablishes the foundation for flood risk evaluation research, with MADM modeldescription, MADM common algorithms analysis, research mechanism and motiveanalysis of flood risk evaluation and multi-attribute risk decision-making model analysisand description.(2) Many deep-rooted issues exist to be solved in the research of flood risk evaluation,such as complex and numerous risk factors, quantitative qualitative indexes coexistence,quantitative description difficulty and so on. Using the triangular fuzzy number (TFN)reasonable to solve the problem of qualitative index quantization, the thesis put forward amethod of flood risk factors modeling based on MADM methods of TFN-AHP. The mainworks are reasonable identification of flood risk factors, constructing flood risk factorsdecision-making comprehensive assessment indexes system, flood risk factors relativeimportance ranking, and risk response analysis for the risk factors of high relativeimportance. Combined with the actual background of flood diversion area, this thesis takeJingjiang flood diversion area for example, demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of flood risk factors decision-making modeling, and provides effective decision-making basisfor flood comprehensive risk overall evaluation.(3) For another important component of flood risk evaluation－flood disaster lossevaluation，according to the study on the method of information uncertainty probabilisticjudgment, this thesis put forward attribute recognition model based on entropy theory. Theproposed model study on the flood disaster loss grade evaluation from MADM angel, anduse the data utility values reflected by information entropy to depict the indexes weightcoefficient and reasonable objective to solve the flood risk index weight assignmentproblem. The flood disaster grade evaluation of flood samples and the disaster damageranking are given respectively. Meanwhile, introducing the artificial intelligencetechnology into the MADM field, the thesis put forward flood damage grade evaluationmodel based on BP neural network. In addition, the two proposed models are comparedwith matter-element analysis evaluation method. The comparison result shows theobjective and reasonable of the proposed models.(4) According to the characteristics of interdependence and interaction of differentflood risk factors, the thesis study the problem of the MADM theory of classical algorithmand fusion, including the integration of fuzzy mathematics, ANP and TOPSIS (Techniquefor Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), and the application of deviationmaximization method in hybrid weights analysis, etc. In this research foundation, thisarticle put forward a fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (FMADM) based on TFN,ANP, entropy method, deviation maximization method and TOPSIS. The model is appliedto risk factors identification, the index weights determination, flood risk valuesdetermination and risk ranking of8towns in the Jingjiang flood diversion area. Theexperimental results show that the FMADM model in the application of floodcomprehensive risk evaluation is reasonable, feasible. It can objectively reflect floodcomprehensive risk distribution of the Jingjiang flood diversion area, and providescientific and reasonable decision-making support for flood control and disaster reduction.