A Fault Tolertance Planning Of Emergency Preparedness To Large-scale Disasters

Large-scale disasters or catastrophes have great influence on the social stability and economic development. According to the theory of business continuity management and the resilience concept, this research studies on the fault-tolerance planning of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness. Emergency managers may have less or no experience to respond to large-scale disasters, because there is no direct experience or plans to guide. It is necessary for us to take the accident scenes into account in the emergency preparedness, and design the fault-tolerance planning for large-scale disasters. The fault tolerant planning does not emphasize on the emergency response under the disaster condition, but stresses on the emergency continuity and recoverability of key service through defensive measures in the preparedness stage, which is pre-event management of emergency and essentially belongs to the risk management. On the whole, the fault tolerant planning is a cycle, dynamic, proactive management process, which takes risk management into the routine management of organization operation and improves urban resilience and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation.First of all, this research proposes the fault tolerant planning framework of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness. People only can prevent disasters, there is no way to completely avoid disaster struck, so how much would we do emergency preparedness to better deal with disasters before a disaster happens? On the basis of the analysis of large-scale disaster risk, it can be divided into the acceptable risk, the ALARP risk an unacceptable risk. This research analyzes the Intention and behavior of disaster prevention and mitigation among the public, enterprises and government, puts forward the fault tolerant measures and sets up fault-tolerant framework of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness focusing on the government subject.Moreover, this research puts forward three kinds of fault tolerant planning methods for large-scale disaster emergency preparedness. People cannot avoid the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquake, typhoon, tsunami, etc., and only can improve the capacity of disaster and emergency preparedness planning to reduce the adverse effects of large-scale disasters. The fault tolerant planning is essentially established in the preparedness stage and ready to perform a series of operation strategies, including special emergency equipment investment, redundant emergency supply reserves, and emergency task process backup, etc. The determination of "tolerance" just provides a reference for emergency decision makers as much as possible to make the public in a relatively safe area. On this basis, this research puts forward three kinds of fault tolerant planning methods.The first one is the fault tolerance planning method of emergency equipment and infrastructure. According to the emergency equipment for rescuing, when a large-scale disaster happens, it cannot be produced in a short period, so it is necessary to configure a certain number of emergency special equipment in the emergency preparedness stage. Besides, lifeline backup system is to prevent the main system failure, like real-time system shutdown, data loss, and file destruction caused by earthquake, typhoon or rainstorm, which is one of the most important methods to ensure data system safe and stable. So this paper uses the input-output method, target linear programming, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and the game theory to discuss the investment of special emergency equipment and disaster preparedness system in advance.The second one is the fault tolerance planning method of emergency supply reserve and distribution. Too many emergency supplies not only take up a lot of position, and also cause huge waste and high reserve cost; Once a large-scale disaster happens, too few emergency supplies cannot satisfy the emergency requirement so that the effect of emergency response is affected. This paper adopts objective linear programming method and the value function to solve the problem of reserve quantity and material allocation.The last one is the fault tolerance planning method of emergency task process. Emergency task process fault tolerance needs protective measures and completes redundancy backup of key emergency task process, in order to improve the speed of emergency task allocation and optimize the structure of emergency task process, which brings the concept of continuity management to the disposal of emergency management. This paper uses the Petri net and Markov chain to study the hot and cold backup of emergency task flow.Finally, this research puts forward the fault tolerant planning template of large-scale disasters. Accident scenes are set up in a certain range through the method of historical events, typical scenarios, hypothetical events and terrible scenes. Based on the designed scenarios, it is necessary to assess risk, retrofit the fault tolerant planning, and puts forward preparedness tasks, which makes the fault tolerant planning into policy agenda. The principal and organization of fault tolerant planning should be confirmed to make the planning according the internal and external risk, coordinate various departments, implement the fault tolerant planning, and do training and exercise. Taking the power grid as an example, the paper explains the use of fault tolerant planning template.The fault tolerant planning of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness can provide emergency managers with risk response planning. This research brings the concept of fault tolerance into large-scale disaster emergency preparedness, originally establishes fault tolerant planning model of emergency preparedness, effectively solves accident scenes of large-scale disaster response, provides a new way for emergency management research, and promotes the new progress in the newly-developing scientific field. Researching on the fault tolerant planning of large-scale disaster emergency preparedness is beneficial to help emergency decision makers master an actual work method and cognize the regular pattern of accident scenes. Though fault-tolerant methods such as emergency resource redundancy reserve, disaster preparedness system investment, and task process backup, etc., the research enriches a new way to link theory with practice, and helps decision makers to deal with unexpected situations like resource scarcity and take the optimal decisions.