| With the continuous growth of global maritime trade and tonnage of large-scale, marine faces a higher risk of oil spill, it brought great harm to human life and health and safety, marine environment and socio-economic.Therefore, the ship oil spill risk assessment of scientific and rational, and accordingly take appropriate risk management measures, which has important practical significance for ensuring the safety of human life and property and protect the marine environment.At present, the research on marine oil spill risk assessment also exists some shortage. Therefore, in this paper, by analyzing the historical data of global ship oil spill accidents, the modelsof oil spill accident frequency were constructed, and on the basis of the combination of oil spill clean-up costs and the ecological environment resources distribution, the assessment model of oil spill environmental risk index was established for ship oil spill risk, and setted the ship oil spill risk acceptance criteria. At the same time, the GNOME oil spill trajectory modeling and weathering model ADIOS were used to simulated oil spill destination to explore the range of possible effects of the oil spill.In addition, this paper expounded thetechnical theorys of marine oil spill emergency management system. Finally, Tianjin sea area had carried on the empirical researchas the research object,which aims to provide decision support for marine oil spill risk managers.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1) Distribution characteristics of ship oil spill accident has obvious.Based on global and China’s maritime history datas of ship oil spill accidents,risk characteristics of ship oil spill accidents made a comprehensive analysis, the results showed that the oil spill accidents had a downward trend over time, a single oil spill effects of the accidents to a greater extent. Operational accident had little effect, however, the marine accident had greater effect. For marine oil spill accidents, the accident reasons were mainly:collision, fire/explosion, grounding and hull damage, etc..The frequencies of occurrenceweredifferent among different ship types. In addition, the paper described the oil spill risk factors from the ship factors, environmental factors and human factors, while the risk characteristics of the oil spill contaminants werealso been described.(2)The frequency estimation modelswere obtained.Oil spill frequency model for ship collision accident was Fcollision=Σnfn·Vf·Tn·MFvis·MFriskmeasures; Oil spill frequency model for ship fire/explosion accident was Ffire/explosion=Σn fn· Tn·Vtraf; Oil spill frequency model for ship hull damage accident was Fhull damage=Σn fn·Tn·MFwind·Vtraf; Oil spill frequency model for ship ground accident was: Fground=Σnfn·Tn·MF risk measures·Vtraf·MFcoast·MFvvis。(3)According to the distribution of the marine ecological environment and resources, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used for calculating the eco-environmental sensitivity index of marine functional zonesincluding marine protected areas, agricultural and fishery areas, tourism and entertainment district, mineral and energy areas, industrial zones and urban construction, port and shipping areas, special use zone and reserved Area. The highest sensitivity index of marine protected areas was0.906and the lowest sensitivity index of reserved areas was0.093. On this basis, the introduction of oil spill clean-up cost model, combined with the oil spill frequency, the ship oil spill environmental risk index model wasERI=ΣSpills F·CU·ESIα·Q0.7233.Moreover, developed ship oil spill risk acceptance criteria in China, the research results show that the area in a year more than10t of ship oil spill accident frequency shall not be more than once.(4)Taking Tianjin sea area as the research object, the models of frequency estimation and environmental risk index were used to assess the ship oil spill risk. According to the results of risk assessment,the construction of emergency management system in Tianjin were discussed. The results showed:①At present, the frequencyof ship oil spill accident in Tianjin sea area is8.258times per year,which caused by collision spill frequency is the highest with8.023times per year, the percentage is about97.2%. From the ship types, cargo ship has the highest frequency with4.463times per year, fishing boats hasthe lowest frequency at0.226times per year.②In Tianjin sea area, the ship oil accident frequency of more than It is4.989times per year, more than10t is about3.3times per year, more than100t is 1.669times per year, more than1000t is0.233times per year.③When the larger ship oil spill accident happened in main channel interchange of Tianjin port, the deepwater anchorage and fishery area would be affected by oil in northwest wind, the dongjiang, nanjiang port area and east east tourism, entertainment and leisure would be affected by oil in southeast wind, the dongjiang portarea and hangu farmers fishing area would be affected by oil in south wind.Three kinds of accident scenarios, the amount of emulsified oil accounted for about1%to2%of the total, oil evaporation accounted for about20%to22%, the residual oil amount accounted for about76%to79%.④The environment risk index of Tianjin is1.39x108$/year, the main channel of Tianjin port have the highest risk value. Thenanjiang port area, beijiang port area and main ship anchorages also showed higher ERI values.⑤According to the ship oil spill risk assessment results of Tianjin sea area, Tianjinhas a higher ship oil spill risk at an unacceptable level. Therefore, it should take compulsory measures to reduce risk from ship management, traffic management and personnel managemen. In addition, it should be to do a good job of emergency management system of construction.⑥According to the situation of Tianjin sea emergency management, from the perspective of the "one case san zhi", the paperdiscussed the ship oil spill emergency management system establishment in Tianjin sea area, and set up emergency management capability assessment system. |
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