Study On The Optimization Of Development Indicators And Evaluation Of Management Effect For Gas Production Units

After the reformation, the oilfield companies in China begin to adopt a mode of the "4-level supervision":stock company--branch company--gas production plant--gas recovery operational zone. And gas recovery operational zone directly becomes a management unit that is responsible for the gas production. At present, most development and management appraisals of the field are based on the hierarchical evaluation model that companies evaluate gas production plants, and gas production plants evaluate their governing gas recovery operational zone. This will cause the wide range of horizontal comparison in the gas recovery operational zone. If companies directly carried out the appraisals of the gas recovery operational zone, not only the problem would be solved, but also the administrative conditions of the gas production plants or companies would be indirectly shown. The practices of the development and management of the field show that companies often adopt the concept of "management based on the production goals", for there are many gas recovery units that are distributed in a wide area and are difficult to manage. The "production goals" refers to the production goals or requirements made based on the real situation of the gas reservoir. The "based on the production goals" means that gas recovery operational zone should arrange their production according to the production goals or requirements made by companies. This demands that the goals made by companies should be correct as much as possible, and the election of the evaluating index of the development and management effect in gas recovery operational zone should be scientific and reasonable, only these can make the appraisals fair and objective.According to the cognition above, the dissertation makes a prediction and optimized research on the development indexes of the gas recovery operational zone, and puts forward a reasonable evaluating system of the development and management effect. The dissertation mainly includes the following aspects.(1) Classifying the development indexes of the gas recovery operational zone. The development index will be classified into the input index (control variable) and the output index (sate variable) by taking the gas reservoir as a system and the relationship between input and output. The qualitative analysis of influential factors on the output index will be carried out and the influential factors of the strong relevance will be merged by the fuzzy cluster; the degree of relevance will be settled by the qualitative analysis on influential factors by the grey relation analysis.(2) Forecasting methods that are suited for development index of different gas recovery operational zone will be put forward. The forecasting methods are listed based on the types and influential factors of the development index in the gas recovery operational zone, and the existing vagueness of historical statistical data. The forecasting methods include the conventional forecasting method and grey model forecasting method based on the rules of the development index itself; and the neural network forecasting method and the SVM forecasting method based on the relationship of systematic output and input.(3) Collocation method and optimization method of the development index in the gas recovery operational zone are given. In order to more objectively and reasonably evaluate the development and management effect, the production plan of the development index in every gas recovery operational zone is reasonably collocated via the optimization method, and the gas yield of every gas recovery operational zone is the key planned value of the development index. In the dissertation, the deterministic proration optimization model, vague proration optimization model and multiple proration optimization model of the gas yield are built, so as to reasonably plan the planned value of the gas yield from different perspectives.(4) The appraisal system of the development and management effect in gas recovery operational zone is built in the dissertation. By analyzing the daily work task in the gas recovery operational zone and finding the common index used to make the horizontal comparison, the evaluation index of the development and management effect in the gas recovery operational zone is classified into four types at last, that is, productive task, oil exploitation geology, technical skill and basic management; and the point of emphasis, mutual relation and influential factors of these index are analyzed. By analyzing the hierarchical relationship of the evaluation index of the development and management effect in the gas recovery operational zone, the weighing of the evaluation index is determined by using the analytic network process. Because differences may exist in different gas recovery operational zone, the scoring method of every index gives full consideration to the number of the stripped well, gas production rate and grade of gas reservoir, etc.(5) The application and evaluation system of the development and management effect in gas recovery operational zone are researched. The corresponding software system is developed based on the evaluation system, which lays foundation for the digitization and automation of the development and management effect evaluation. The system can realize a comprehensive score and ranking of the development and management effect in the gas recovery operational zone, this will overcome the former shortcomings of the manual calculation assessment and appraisals made by the gas production plants; provide convenience for the inquiry of historical data; strengthen the horizontal comparison in the gas recovery operational zone; discover existing problems on time; and improve the development and management level in the gas recovery operational zone.