The Research On Energy Ecoloical Footprint In China Based On Computable General Equilibrium Model

With the continuous development of the process of industrialization, the worldis facing increasingly serious environmental problems. In China, the task ofdeveloping the low-carbon economy is quitely grim, according to statistics; Chinahas become the world’s second largest energy consumer, the largest country of theecological footprint, and carbon dioxide emissions have accounted forapproximately23%of the global proportion, increased from12.9%, per capita ofwhich now has exceeded the world average.It is particularly important that How tosolve the major contradictions between the demand for energy and ecologicalfootprint, and achieve win-win development patterns with economic-socialdevelopment and ecological-environment protection. Energy ecological footprint isa better measurement for the degree of sustainable development, to measure theimpact of energy consumption on the environment.It chooses the ecological footprint of energy as the topic, first, it calculatesChina’s energy ecological footprint from1978to2010By three methods, with theresult that the traditional method tends to be more stable, showing that the energyecological footprint gross ascends all the time increased by5.4times, and analysesthe evolution characteristics of the total energy ecological footprint and itscomposition, energy footprint intensity(EFI)and the ecological pressure of theenergy ecological footprint(EPIEF); Secondly, it analyses driving mechanism ofenergy ecological footprint, including energy itself and social-economic drivingfactors, and filters out the main driving factors based on partial least squaresmethod, and establishes multivariate nonlinear regression equation between theecological footprint of energy resources and the main factors with STIRPAT model,using the ridge regression for fitting, then analyzes scientifically and objectivelysocial-economic driving force and its driving mechanism of the ecological footprintenergy.The results show that the population growth and per capita GDP growth arethe main driving factors, and improving energy efficiency, reducing energy intensity are also critical factors to energy ecological footprint. There is rigid linksbetween economic development and energy demand, the rapid growth of energyconsumption plays a decisive role on the energy ecological footprint. Then, itintroduces a carbon tax policy control variables, the energy ecological footprintmodule and the clean development mechanism module to the extended CGE model,with the balanced macro SAM table as the basic data, divided by ten departments.Finally, it simulates policy scenarios including effects of technical progressbased on improving energy efficiency, and the carbon tax policy in the macroeconomic dimension.The results show that, in the short term, a small portion of thecarbon tax is not great to GDP, however, in the long term, the higher the carbon taxrate, the greater the energy ecological footprint reduction rate, the greater thenegative impact on economic development, and progressive carbon tax is beneficialto reduce the loss rate of GDP, at the same time to reduce the energy ecologicalfootprint apparently; It set an increase of5%in energy efficiency promotingtechnological progress, the simulation results show the efficiency of energy usedoes reduce the total energy consumption at the beginning, but in the long run,economic growth, high-energy consuming sectors to improve the competitivenessand The growth in exports of energy-consuming products, further stimulate thedemand of macroeconomic level for energy. Finally, it put forward torecommendations from the market and operational level to reduce the energyecological footprint.