The Research Of China's Oil Import Price Risk Early Warning

In recent years,with the sustained and rapid development of our country's economic, China's oil consumption increased year by year,the gap between domestic oil supply and demand has become increasingly, the dependence on foreign oil continues to increase. At the same time,the oil market is also showing a fast-changing trends,international oil price fluctuations frequently. The growing gap between supply and demand and frequent fluctuations in oil prices led the import risk factor of national oil is increasing,and oil security has been a threat to the country's economic security and national security. How do we follow the rules of market economy and draw on international experience to establish the risk early-warning mechanism of oil import price for providing the information that when is the best time to buy and sell oil for information decision-making departments,to avoid the embarrassing situation -continued to buy at high-priced, stop buying at low,and how to transfer or transformation the risk when the risk occurs are the urgent subjects.The purpose of this study is based on a new theory of risk and price risk,in response to the main international and domestic situation which China's oil import prices faced,made the early applied research for risk warning of China's oil import price,and thus establish and improve China's oil import price risk early-warning mechanisms,and provide a theoretical basis and the decision-making reference for the protection of national oil security and safe operation of national economy.This paper mainly researches the following areas:First of all,it describes and analyzes the related theory of risk and oil price risk,constructes the theoretical foundation and framework required. Secondly,this paper analyzes the status and problems of China's oil import prices systematically,knows the situation and problems of China's oil security faced by analyzing. Thirdly,this paper mades a comprehensive analysis on the China's oil import price risk and the causes from the International factors(the world's oil and gas resources,the demand and supply of international oil and gas,China's efforts to control the oil-producing and consuming countries)and the domestic factors(China's oil pricing mechanism and so on).Fourthly, this paper analyzes the economic impact of oil imports price risk through GDP,investment, inflationm,consumption,International balance of payments, related industries and so on Fifthly,combined theoretical analysis and actual situation of China,this article put forward a construction principle of price risk warning mechanism and the workable risk warning indicator system of China's oil import price Finally,this paper explores the early applied research for risk warning of China's oil import price by using the principal component analysis method,gray prediction theory and autoregressive moving average ARMA (p,q) model.The main innovations of this paper are the following:firstly, enricheing the theory of oil price risk and analyzing the economic impacts of China's oil import price risk deep by using CGE models,analyzeing the major international and domestic factors which influence of China's oil import prices comprehensive in-depth from the qualitative and quantitative,long- term and short-term perspective,Secondly,puting forward a research ideas and construction principle of price risk's early-warning mechanism,builting the early-warning indicator system of China's oil import price risk based on analysising the factors which influence China's oil import price,and using principal component analysis and factor analysis to determine the the main evaluation index that impact China's oil import prices;Finally,conducting a comprehensive research of the China's oil import prices risk on the basis of early-warning indicator system of China's oil import prices, while this article also proposed a price-correction method for the feature that oil import prices will be influenced by short-term factors.