The System Dynamics Model For Energy Supply And Energy Consumption

In recent years, the issues of the energy supply and energy consumption in China have been the focus of both academic researchers and practitioners, with the progress of method modification. Based on the previous methods for energy supply and energy consumption, the System Dynamics is adapted to modify the Hubbert curve of energy supply and decomposition method of energy consumption in this dissertation. Therefore, the analytic models are transformed into the ones supported by the dynamic simulated arithmetic and forecasting function is added to decomposition model of energy consumption. By comparing the simulated results from System Dynamics models with that of original analytic models, tests of forecasting capability and method advantages for the new System Dynamics models are carried out.Moreover, it is the significant issues on China's energy supply and energy consumption in future. According to the situation in China, the System Dynamics models developed are utilized to simulate and analysis the changing trends for China's energy supply and consumption, including the Hubbert cuves for the main energy production, peak prediction, and tendency of main energy consumption with contributions by related factors. The related energy policies are given according to the equilibrium analysis on China's energy supply and consumption.The main objectives of this dissertation are as follows. The dynamic stimulation and forecasting ability are determined by the System Dynamics models and then energy supply and energy consumption are analyzed and forecasted by these new models, which have a positive effect on method modification and explanation for the reality.There are six main sections in this dissertation shown below.(1) Literatures on the Hubbert theory of energy supply and the decomposition method of energy consumption are reviewed. The former includes main theory body, applications as well as the shapes of Hubbert curve which is focused on recently. The latter includes the early achievements in researches, limitions and modifications of some methods, feature of main researches and the discussions on Chinese energy consumption.(2) Establishing a System Dynamics model for the Hubbert curve of energy supply. By analyzing the causality of reserves, production and other related factors of Hubbert curve, the feedback loops and their analysis are presented. Then the System Dynamics model of Hubbert curve is established to describe the production curve of nonrenewable energy in some regions and to forecast the production peak. In addition, the oil production data in U.S. is used to test the predicting capability of the new System Dynamics model.(3) Establishing a System Dynamics model for the decomposition method of energy consumption. The original model solved by analytic arithmetic can be transformed into the dynamically simulated model, sothat contributions of influential factors could be determined by decomposing the previous annual energy consumption change. Moreover, future energy consumption changes and factors'effects can be simulated by the related data of Liaoning Provinvce, with the decomposed results of the factors'effects compared with that of complete decomposed method, which shows that System Dynamics model performs better.(4) The extended System Dynamics models of energy consumption are presented, such as the decomposition models for the changes of coal and oil consumption. These two models are employed to simulate the tendency of coal and oil consumption, and to discuss the impacts of economic growth and energy intensity on the changes of coal and oil consumption.(5) Forecasting the changing tendency and production peak for Chinese coal and oil. The System Dynamics model of Hubbert curve developed in this dissertation is adapted to simulate China's coal and oil production to draw the production curves, to forecast peak productions and their corresponding years. The forecast and scenario analysis set by the growth rate "a" and ultimate reserves show the scopes of peak production.(6) Analyzing and Forecasting the future demand of China's energy, coal and oil consumption. This dissertation adapts the System Dynamics model of energy consumption to decompose China's energy consumption with related factors and simulate its future change in short term. Moreover, changing tendencies and factors' contribution for China's coal and oil consumption is forecasted by the extended models of energy consumption, in order to evaluate the effects of economic growth and energy intensity. The aims of this dissertation are setting System Dynamics models and make a discussion on China by models. The System Dynamics models presented in this dissertation have the advangtage of the more function and lower working cost than before. The discussion on China can provide the scientific base for energy policy-making according to the analyses on source demand and supply, as well as reinforce the application of System Dynamics.