| Energy is an indispensable basic resource for the survival of mankind, economic development, social progress and the advancement of modern civilization, an important strategic material in relation with the country's economy and national defense and security, also the basis for the sustainable economic and social development. Therefore, energy plays a vital role in the modernization construction. Since China has entered the stage of industrialization development along with many fundamental changes in such fields as economy and society, the sector of energy rs also facing a variety of challenges, which will consequently lead to changes in the consumption, efficiency and production structure of energy. To make scientific analysis and forecast on the changes in the demand, supply and structure of energy, transformation of energy efficiency and the strategy for the development of clean energy in China is of important significance for the formulation of proper energy development planning, securing the realization of the nation's strategic goal and the construction of a harmonious energy-saving society.This text, based on the analysis on the current situation of energy development in China and the rest of the world, makes simulation and decision analysis on issues in relation with energy demand and supply in China as the following presents:Coal has always been the major form of energy consumption in China. The opening of coal price enables this kind of resource to enter the market economy by which the price is determined. In addition, as coal is a non-renewable resource and its supply fits the theory of limit in growth, therefore the inventory theory, price theory and the theory of limit in growth are adopted to build a dynamic model of demand and supply system, which is unique compared to previous models. In this model, the factor of population is set to be included in speed of economic development throughout this paper. The model can be used to simulate and forecast the volume of coal production and consumption, the amount of consequent carbon dioxide emission, and the influence posed by changes in structure and intensity of coal consumption. As for the model of demand and supply in petroleum and natural gas, considering that China has entered the stage of industrialization development and is restricted by the influence to the environment by economic development and thus in great need of clean energy, prices of these two kinds of energy won't significantly affect the volume of consumption. Therefore, dynamic models are built respectively based on the limitation of resource storage, the theory of limit in growth and the inventory theory. These two models are able to simulate and forecast the volume of production, consumption and carbon dioxide emission of petroleum and natural gas, also the time when their productions reach the peak and the influence on the consumption amount posed by the structure and intensity of consumption of these two resources.As different from previous models, system dynamics has been adopted by the research on the demand and supply of nuclear and renewable resources. Uranium resource and the capacity of nuclear plants are major concerns of nuclear researches. Since uranium is a special resource that features long cycles in exploration and development and is restricted in purchase across the world, its price may be disregarded, and the dynamic model is built based on the limitation of resource storage, the theory of limit in growth and the inventory theory. By using this model, the volume of production, consumption, reserve, import of uranium and the amount of power generated can be predicted. In terms of renewable energy, such categories as can be used massively have been taken into consideration. Since renewable resources can be used repeatedly, they are infinite in supply; still their biggest yield is restricted by objective factors of itself. Take solar energy, the usage of this resource has to be limited by the utmost sunshine area. Therefore, the model for renewable resources introduces the theory of limit in growth and takes as endogenous variables the relation between the learning curves of total fixed asset investment and unit fixed asset investment, which can reduce the number of exogenous variables and improve the accuracy of the model and is unique compared to other counterparts. By using this model, the production volume and total amount of supply of each kind of renewable energy can be predicted, as well as the time when the biggest yield reaches the peak.To make a better research on the influence of total supply and demand of energy, the optimization of the energy structure, the improvement of energy efficiency on the energy supply and demand in our country, methods of system dynamics theory of demand and supply balance combined with scene analysis method are adopted to establish the system dynamics scene analysis and decision-making model which can be used to analyze energy production and consumption structure. Three scenes are established in the decision-making model: scene 1 is reference scene, which indicates that the energy efficiency in China fits with the realities and the sustainable development is correct and feasible; scene 2 is pessimistic scene, which denotes that the energy efficiency in China doesn't live up to the reference scene, and the sustainable development is unfavorable; scene 3 is optimistic scene, which indicates that the energy efficiency in China is improved rapidly and the sustainable development is carried out further and intensively. The model can be used to predict the influence of total energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission amount, the improvement of the energy efficiency and the energy structure on the energy consumption and the dependence of energy supply and demand on the outside world. The simulation tests show that the errors of the test results of the above models are within the permissible range.Based on the above research results, this paper conducts an empirical research on the energy demand and supply, the transformation of energy structure and energy efficiency, clean energy development strategy and carbon dioxide emission in China, and the results show that:In the past 50 years, the energy in our country relies on mainly coal. Although the energy consumption are diversified after the development in recent years, the energy in our country will still rely on the coal, and the coal accounts for about 70% of the energy. The oil consumption ratio will reduce, and the consumption ratio of the natural gas, nuclear energy and the renewable energy sources will increase rapidly. The domestic output of oil and natural gas will reach to the peak during 2015-2025, and the output of the other energy sources will reach to the peak after 2030.The improvement of energy efficiency and the energy consumption structure has a critical influence on the total energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission and dependence on outside world. After the energy efficiency transforms from scene mode 2 to scene mode 1-development mode, about 7.16 billion tons of standard coal are saved totally during 2005-2020. After the energy structure transforms from scene mode 2 to scene mode 3-development mode, about 2.057 billion tons of standard coal are saved totally during 2005-2020. With the adjustment of the energy structure and the improvement of energy efficiency, the emission reduction amount in the three scenes during 2007-2020 is 0.3 billion tons of carbon, 0.33 billion tons of carbon and 0.28 billion tons of carbon respectively. The dependence of energy consumption on the outside world in the three scenes will be 11.24%,37.90% and 8.87% respectively up to 2020. The methods that can relieve the energy consumption pressure in China include: adjust the energy structure energetically; increase the service efficiency of the energy; guarantee the supply; weaken the environmental influence and reduce the dependence on the outside world.
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