A Study On Provincial Disparity Of Tourism Industry Development And Its Impact On Economic Growth

Into the 21st century, people are closer to the "Leisure Time". Tourism has been the first largest industry of the world, and the development of it has also brought large amount of economic benefits to provinces of China. But, industry development is always accompanied by regional disparity, development of tourism is no exception. When promoting coordinated regional development has been an important strategic task of our country, it is very necessary to analysis the current situation and trend of provincal disparity of tourism development. Also it is important to study the economic impact of tourism development on different provinces.To make results of the study more in line with the long-term trends of tourism development, the paper studied the abnormal characters of tourism statistics using ARIMA model. The result shows affected by lots of emergency crisis, there are outliers in time series of tourism statistics. According to this result, the paper made appropriate amendments on outliers. Based on this analysis, the paper did qualitative study on the provincal disparity of tourism development and then evaluated the provincal disparity using Gini Coefficient and analyzed changing trends of provincal disparity of tourism development. This part of the study concludes provincial disparity of international tourism, domestic tourism and the whole tourism industry is ameliorating, provincial disparity of domestic tourism and the whole tourism industry are already releatively reasonable while provincial disparity of international tourism is still very large. In order to obtain the changing trends of provincal disparity of tourism development in time and in space, the paper decomposed Gini Coefficient by population; and to get an idea about impacts of development of international and domestic tourism on trends of regional disparity of the whole tourism industry, the paper decomposed Gini Coefficient by income sources. Also, the paper decomposed change of Gini Coefficient to get an idea about impacts of the income concentration effect and the structure effect on trend of provincal disparity of tourism development. The study shows compared with international tourism, changing trend of domestic tourism disparity has greater impact on trend of tourism industry disparity. Also, the study concluded raising the proporition of domestic tourism revenue in the total tourism revenue will help ameliorating provincial disparity of tourism industry. Secondly, the paper analyzed 30 influential paper home and abroad and get 7 major factors which were unanimously endorsed by researchers using content analysis. The 7 major factors are the core tourist attractions, regional infrastructure, regional economic development level, regional locational capacity, regional human capital, the level of government administration and tourism service facilities. Based on these factors, the paper established evaluation index system for each factor and analyzed their impacts on the regional tourism development and its regional disparity.Thirdly, the paper generated a threshold panel data regression model to discuss economic impacts of international and domestic tourism on different provinces. By this analysis, the paper got the threshold of industry development where structural break of economic effects of tourism development happened. The results show that when proportion of international tourism revenue in GDP is 2.36% and proportion of domestic tourism revenue in GDP is 14.31%, there will be changing point in nonlinear relations of international tourism development or domestic tourism development with economic growth.Finally, combining with the main conclusions of the study, countermeasures and suggestions on tourism development are proposed to central and local governments.