A Study On Some Key Issues Of Budget Management For Chinese Large Petroleum Group Corporation

In this dissertation, the definition, objectives, mechanisms, functions and main modes of budget management for business group are introduced firstly. Then, the framework of budget management for Chinese petroleum group corporation is discussed and some key issues are raised based on the current situation of management practice. After that, technical solutions are proposed according to the key issues raised before. Main works of this dissertation are as follows:1. A new approach to predict crude oil price named Asymmetric ARIMA-GARCH is proposed. The traditional ARIMA-GARCH model has some weaknesses such as the error part is too large to be used as a predicting model. The oil price series has some characteristics such as the higher price causes larger fluctuation and price rise and drop drives the following price differently. The proposed new model explained the asymmetry of the crude oil price series, which make the prediction more accurate. The Brent oil monthly spot price series during Jan,1997～Jul,2009 is analyzed by the proposed model and the fitness is statistical significant.2. A new idea of inner supply chain value maximization for petroleum group corporation is proposed in the dissertation. Based on this idea, the optimization of inner supply chain planning model is built. Specifically, crude oil production, import, sale, refining quantity, gasoline import, gasoline sale and petrochemicals production are generated by the model given any crude oil price.At the same time, solution for the dual problem give the profit margins created by expand productivity or market share. A case study illustrate that conflicts exist between the overall group value and the branches values. Also, the optimization of supply chain counteracts the risk coursed by crude oil price fluctuation.3. By adding time effects into traditional seemingly related regression (SUR) model, a new variable-coefficient panel data model is proposed in order to evaluate the profitability and to predict the profits of petroleum group corporation's subdivisions. The parameters'estimation method is given, which fully uses the history of the company's financial information and shows the advantage of the proposed model. A case study compared eight oil fields'profitability of a Chinese petroleum group corporation. Also, their profits are predicted.4. Quality control techniques and visual data mining techniques are introduced into the area of financial management. Financial targets are allowed to move which is different from quality targets. Thus, the control chart with variable mean is employed as an early warning control tool. Based on that, a new variance analysis method is proposed. Namely, a"budget tree"data structure is designed to format the financial data firstly. After that,"problem detection matrix"technique which is invented by this dissertation is used to compare actual costs and their targets, identify variances, and interpret the source of each variance.