Research On Modeling And Decision Analysis Methods Of A Type Of Bounded Rationality

Decision theory is developed all along with the research and the discussion of rationality. The core of classical decision theory is established on the Expected Utility Theory based on utility existence axioms system of Von Neumann-Morgenstern. However, many real-life people are not perfect economic men even if they solve complex decision problems with assistance from decision analysers and enough time. In the wake of the paradoxes of choice and doubts of classical decision theory from psychological and behavioral experiments, scholars started to analyze and study the subsistent bounded rational characteristics of human beings. Available decision models are amended to establish and analyze the decision theory and methods to describe actual individual decision.The aim is to establish the mathematical model of bounded rationality and analyze rational disciplines hidden behind the phenomenon of inconsistent preferences of individual decision makers which can be used to guide to make decisions during the production practices. One of the core concepts is that, the decision preferences can be devided into internal preferences and revealed preferences, in which, the revealed preference is an important indicator for evaluating and measuring the intrinsic rationality. Specifically, aiming at the inconsistency of preferences during choice problems, the latent relationship between the preferences and individual rationality is revealed by the criteria-based preference model which explains the basic reason of the preference bias caused by the problem's formal changes. By establishing mathematic models based on ordinal preference and cardinal utility, the consistence between decision functions and preferences under the axiomatic conditions are discussed. The conclusion provides the theoretical foundation of individual decision-making capacity assessment in complex problems and indicate the method which can increase the satisfactory degree of decision-making. For the empirical rationality of decision-makers, the double rational mode of case-based decision is discussed and its bounded decision model is constructed. This model can be used in the innovative design and to reduce possiblity of decision bias. In application, the bounded rational characteristics of designers and customers during the products conceptual design progress are considered. The products conceptual design and case-based decision analysis methods are integrated to construct human centered products conceptual design method. The method adjusts and perfects the design proposal during the iterative loops process with flexible index regulations. The design method not only reduces the complexibility of case library construction but also improves the innovation implication for designers during the reasoning process. The viability of the method is finally demonstrated by a motorcycle product design instance.The bounded rational models established in the thesis breakthrough the bottleneck of immeasurable rationality and open up new ways to deepen the decision analysis of complex problems. The models can be used for reference in research on the mechanism complexity of the social economic system, and has the important theoretical significance and academic value in understanding the realistic economic phenomena correctly and treating practical decision problem effectively.