Research On Information And Communication Technology Standard Diffusion Model And Its Application Based On Non-Invariable Influence

Globalization of economy, informationization of society and internationalization of standard are the overall trends of today's world. In the second half of the 20th century, along with the rapid development of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) in the world, the global competitive environment is undergoing profound changes. ICT companies, such as Microsoft and Intel, are holding the leading positions in this competition by taking the advantages of leading high-tech and powerful network resources, and controlling the global resources based on the modularization, technology standards and commercial rules. The Wintel producing manner, which achieves economic interests by diffusing the established standards, can comprehensively reveales its essential disciplinarian by using the traditional analysis methods of technology innovation and diffusion Therefore, it has become an important subject in academe to investigate the diffusion rules of information and communication technology standards.This paper aims at creating ICT standard diffusion model based on the innovation of Bass model by analysis of ICT standard diffusion theory. By applying the model to the emperical study of ICT standard diffusion trend, some suggestions are proposed to ICT standardization policy in China.Through deep analysis of technology standard theory and ICT standard's characteristics and lifecycle, this paper demonstrates the important role standard diffusion takes in ICT's lifecycle and defines the concept of standard diffusion. Based on the technology innovation diffusion theories, this paper explores the relationship between technology innovation diffusion and technology standard diffusion by analyzing the relationship between technology innovation and technology standard. This paper deeply investigates the features and rules of standard diffusion, and establishes the foundation for ICT standard diffusion model.This paper reviews the previous works on technology innovation diffusion models and proposes an NII (Non-Invariable Influence) model based on the results of theoretical analysis. It also finds out that the outside influence is non-invariable differing from the invariable assumption in classical Bass model. A new diffusion model expression is then derived from the classical Bass model. The remarkable characteristic of NII model is that a Non-Invariable Influence coefficient D is added. This paper discusses how to influence standard diffusion trend by controlling D.NII model has its applicability and superiority compared with Bass model according to emperical study on the standard diffusion trend of Chinese network IPv4.At last, this paper makes suggestions on China's ICT standardization policy. The policy signification of the proposed model is elaborated by examining the core idea and practical significance of the NII model. Through the evaluation of the standardization policy in developed countries, the paper summarizes some useful experience for the ICT industry in China. Six pieces of suggestion are proposed based on the core idea of the NII model and the actual situation of ICT industry in China. Promote national ICT standard diffusion to enhance information-communication industry's standard competition power of our country.