| As WTO presented similar development momentum as the United Nations, the multi-polarization of negotiations among WTO has become increasingly apparent within the framework of the multilateral trading system. The TPP, also called Trans- Pacific Partnership, therefore had emerged as the era demands. And it had made open and inclusive step to the expansion since the accession of the United States as a leading role. As the Line-up formed in 2013, the combined GDP of the twelve negotiating nations accounts for nearly 40% of the world, and their total trade volume for a third according to 2014 data. Different from FTA signed before, the TPP is a trade agreement of high level, wide area, highly liberalization, involving not only tangible goods trade, also service trade, labor issues, investment terms, environment clause, etc. Therefore, the foreground of the TPP will bring high-impact to the global economic order and the political pattern, which will accordingly change pattern of trading cooperation within the Asia-Pacific even the whole world. Whereas the TPP talks has ended in November 2015, leaving China, the world’s second largest economy as well as an important voice in the Asia-Pacific though, beyond the first echelon of the agreement.At present, the United States has become China’s second largest trading partner, trading volume between whom ranks only second to that with the European Union, contributing to an integral role of USA for China. With the agreement reached in October 2015, the trade and investment from the other TPP members are bound to boom in the US market, leading to inevitable loss to Sino-US trade. Therefore all sectors of society have been concerning about its politic and economic influences, trying to bring up methods given the present export industry, draw on the advantages and avoid disadvantages. To the concern this paper makes an analysis based on the scale of export trade between China and the United States, probing into the influences of US’ ascension on trade of China from the perspective of the export commodity structure.This paper uses comparative analysis, theoretical analysis, empirical analysis of the research methods. The first part briefly introduces the background, significance of this thesis, the brief introduction of domestic and foreign relative research, the mind map as well as its elaboration, following the innovation and deficiency of this article. The second part explores theoretical basis of the research, mainly on customs union in regional economic integration. The third part makes sense of background of US leading part in TPP through a summary of its developing process and achievement. The fourth part discusses politic influence that US’ character could bring to China. The fifth part processes Sino-US trading data from 2000 to 2014, which reveals changes of commodity classification in Chinese exports, our position in US trade pattern, and continuous deepening of intra industry trade. The sixth part introducing the gravity model and trade similarity index, makes partial equilibrium analysis including the gravity model to clarify U.S.-led TPP influences on Chinese commodities export scale and commodity structure. The seventh part is the conclusion of the above elaboration, and corresponding suggestions as far as US’ leading TPP.The current domestic and foreign studies of TPP are mainly discussed from the perspective of the TPP development background, process, effects, etc. While the research is rare that focus on changes of specific trade competition relations between China and members of TPP on particular market. Therefore, this article uses the empirical analysis, discusses in details the effect of trade between China and the member states under the US-led TPP. To the insufficiency, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the trade effect of TPP, lacking multilateral forming process of regional economic integration which has been widely adopted by contemporary research. |
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