Study On Chinese Energy Early Warning Model

The modern industrial and economic development is indispensable to energy. Since in present day nonrenewable fossil energy plays a predominant role and its distribution is extremely uneven, the whole world's uncertainty has been increased because of the competition in energy. The aggregate supply and demand of Chinese energy are delicately balanced on the whole; the biggest bottleneck and variety for the future economic and social development are from energy. It is rather prospective, strategic and focused to carry out Chinese energy early-warning study, together with enormous difficulty and challenge.After analyzed the international energy situation, the paper studied and established Chinese Energy Early Warning Model, whinch including 4 sub-systems and 54 early warning indicators including coal, petroleum, electric power and comprehensive evaluation, using the early warning theory and mathematic tools. Interrelating and recursive, each chapter investigates pertinently the hot and difficult spots in the energy area. The major contents, methods and opinions concerned are as follows:The knowledge of energy security is deepened. Based on the energy's multi-properties and new security view, the paper enriches the connotation of energy security. The contemporary four elements of supply safety, price safety, environment security and strain are extended to trustworthy supply, reasonable price, higher efficiency, clean environment, stable cooperation, flexible strain, based on which, the paper analysed the global energy distribution and the challenge faced by China.The Chinese energy early warning model is built. Contrasted with the factors influencing the energy safety and the four subsystems of coal, oil, gas and power, the paper selected several early warning indicators. Through principal component analysis and PCA-AR, ANN methods, with the historic data from 1995 to 2006, the paper studied and built the Chinese energy early-warning model, and put forward the Chinese energy early warning index.China's energy security status in 2007 has been analyzed and the relevant suggestions are put forward.The application of the Chinese energy early warning model built by this paper has very important theoretic and practical value to improve energy decision, strengthen the adjustment of energy operation and emergent management, and protect the energy better.