Region Sustainable Development Research Based On Synthetic Appraisal Theory

The sustainable development is one kind of new development strategy and view, involves many discipline domains of natural sciences and the social sciences, and is unified and consistent with current harmonious society's construction in essentially. Since the open reform, the Qingpu area economy & society have made the huge progress, yet how to preserve this growth momentum, becomes the critical issue of whole area at present. Through establishing the Qingpu area sustainable development appraisal model, carrying analysis on Qingpu area current economic & society running status, and sustainable development condition, conducting the thorough research on the factors which will restrict the further development of this area by the simulation technology, this paper plans to provide the theory and the model basis for the policy making, and pours vigor into the economy development and the harmonious society construction of Qingpu area.The paper takes the relationship among region sustainable development, the cycle economy and the harmonious society as the master line to launch the analysis, unifying the qualitative investigation and the quantitative investigation, the normativel research and the positive analysis, fully with the aid of computer information and the technology such as Matlab. Emphatically from the present situation summarizes of sustainable development research, the current situation of sustainable development index research, the determination of region sustainable development appraisal index, the region sustainable appraisal based on synthetic appraisal theories, the tendency forecasting by the multi-models, the Qingpu area harmonious society strategy analysis, totally six pats, carries on the theory discussion and the real diagnosis analysis to the region sustainable development related theories and the methods. The Main research content and conclusion as follows:First, the region sustainable development and its correlation research summarize.So many domestic and foreign experts have carried the region sustainable development research, mainly from the region sustainable development elementary theory, the region sustainable development appraisal target system and the synthetic appraisal model, region sustainable development plan, region sustainable development safeguard and countermeasure measures, and have developed the massive theories and the real diagnosis research, which have yielded a series of results. In the later research of our country, it should be paid more attention to following several questions: Performs the region sustainable development theory system; Strengthens the region sustainable development appraisal system; How to enhance the region sustainable development ability through the correlated policies, considering about the nation condition.Second, the present research situation and determination of sustainable development appraisement index.Mainly from two aspects, the construction model, and the situation of domestic and foreign sustainable development research, to discuss the sustainable development appraisal index. Then discusses about the sustainable development appraisal principle and the quantitative analysis technology, considering about the environment-economy-society situation of Qingpu area. First qualitatively determines the Qingpu area sustainable development appraisal database (altogether 70 targets), then use the non-parameter examination and statistics analysis technology to simplify the primitive index system, and use the principal components analysis to confirm the validity of this method. Through this method, finally establishes the Qingpu area sustainable development appraisal index system which includes 47 targets.Third, the region sustainable development synthetic appraisal based on AHP.On the brief review of Qingpu area economic & society development and the synthetic appraisal technology, constructs the Qingpu area sustainable development appraisal model based on the AHP method, and carries on the evaluation to the Qingpu area present situation, finally carries on the confirmation and the comparison through the principal components analysis to this real diagnosis result, and has carried on the brief analysis to the two difference. The real diagnosis discovers that Qingpu area has experienced 1990 - 1998 joggings the drop stage, 1999 - 2005 gradually rising stage, currently is at the adjustment stage; The diagnosis based on the principal components analysis to the Qingpu area sustainable development, has drawn different conclusion from the AHP method. This indicates that, it's so important to carry on the quantitative & qualitative analysis, and the multi- models in synthetic appraisal.Fourth, the region sustainable development trendency forecast.Separately uses the fitting & interpolation technology, and the BP neural network, to forecast the Qingpu area region sustainable development tendency. Three results display certain differences, yet in the whole manifests that Qingpu area sustainable development ability slows down, and even appears the adjustment tendency, which worths attention. The research discovers that, it's so important to use the multi-methods to carry the combined forecast. The sustainable development synthetic appraisal is a nonlinear system, which has many limits in using the traditional forecast methods, yet the neural network can overcome these limits so well, and can conveniently, simply and directly realize the more accurate non-linear forecast; The neural network model choice, the hiden layer, the neuron integer, the training function determination, are the key questions in the neural network utilization.Fifth, the Qingpu area harmonious society strategic research.On the foundation of Qingpu area sustainable development present situation appraisal and the tendency forecast, gives analysis on the influence of core index floation to SD appraisal result, unifies the 15th plan of Qingpu area, focusing on the harmonious social strategy, carries on the policy discussion to promote the Qingpu economy and society's growth to be more healthy, and sustainable.Paper's main innovation spots:1st, use the relationship among the region sustainable development, the cycle economy, and harmonious society's construction as the master line to launch the research, which means the harmonious society is the goal, the sustainable development is the premise, the cycle economy is the power. On the foundation of the region sustainable development present situation appraisal and the tendency forecasting, further unifies the harmonious social strategy, takes proper measures to strengthen the region sustainable development ability;2nd, has proposed the appraisal index construction method based on statistical analysis technology. Namely based on cluster analysis, the none-parameter examination, and correlation analysis technology, founds the region sustainable development appraisal index, and to confirm it through the principal components analysis, which can realize the unification of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis;3rd, based on the synthetic appraisal technology, constructs the region sustainable development appraisal model; And combined with the fitting & interpolation technology, and the neural network to carry on the multi-models forecast to the Qingpu sustainable development. Further considering about the 15th plan and the harmonious society strategy, to regulate and improve the situation by proper measures.In summary, this article carries on the attempt exploration and research to the region sustainable development synthetic appraisal, the forecasting technology, and the policy analysis. Overall, there is still a far way to perfect the region sustainable development synthetic appraisal theory. From now on, it's so significant to carry further research on the sustainable development synthetic appraisal, the region sustainable development short-term and the long-term forecasting method technology, and the quantitatively research based region sustainable development policy analysis.