| Since the 1990s, it is worldwide known that China telecom industry has developed very rapidly. The number of telephone users has increased to over 800 million in 2006. As the basic industry of national economy, telecom industry has developed from "bottleneck industry" to an industry which is coordinate with other industries. Telecom industry is playing a very important role in national economy. Standing on this background, this dissertation tries to make a quantitative research on the contribution of China telecom industry to national economy and how the contribution can be sustainable.There are seven chapters in this dissertation.Chapter 1 is "introduction". Firstly, the dissertation gives an overview of the development, the status, the role and the effect of telecom industry. On this foundation, we can elicit the dissertation's subject and expound the topic's basis and purpose as well. By remarking to the related research from both domestic and overseas, the research point, the framework and the innovation of the dissertation come out.Chapter 2: the framework of the dissertation. The main methods of the dissertation are input-output method and system dynamics. First, the dissertation expounds the basis theory of input-output method and system dynamics, and then constructs the framework of this study by the two methods.Chapter 3: the input-output analysis of China telecom industry's contribution. Based on the chapter 2 of the input-output research framework, the chapter makes a quantitative calculation and analysis on the China telecom industry's contribution to national economy. Chapter 4: Study on the position of China telecom industry on national economy. The chapter makes definition on "leading industry", "basic industry", "forerunner industry" and "principal industry" firstly, and then makes different quantitative studies on it, finally, the dissertation gets the regular pattern of the position changing of China telecom industry on national economy-it has changed from a basic industry of middle products to a basic industry of final demands. Thus, the dissertation makes a quantitative evidence for the transformation of China telecom industry.Chapter 5: In-depth study of the formation mechanism of China telecom industry's contribution to the national economy. The research of the chapter mainly focuses on the fundamental role of investment, the engine effect of technology and the lever effect of the price. On the research of fundamental role of investment: firstly the dissertation cites the data of the contribution of investment to the telecom industry in chapter 3, then combines input-output tables calculating shadow price of China telecom industry, finally, based on the effect of network externalities on industrial investment, the dissertation draws the conclusion, the investment of telecom industry should be continuous and adequate. On the research of the engine effect of technology: for telecom-technology, using Cobb-Douglas production function model, based on the investment, the labor force used, and the business quantity over years through the method of R. W. Solow, the contribution of the production in the progress and innovation of telecom-technology is surveyed. On the research of the lever effect of the price: the dissertation analyzes it by game theory and the upper price and price floor regulation in China telecom industry.Chapter 6: Based on the system dynamics, the chapter focuses on how the contribution of telecom industry can be sustainable, choosing GDP, population, telecom consumption, telecom investment and the added value of the telecom as subsystem. Simulating from 2000 to 2020, the results show that the telecom industry's direct contribution to the national economy, driving force and promoting force of absolute volume will continue togrow.Chapter 7: The Conclusion. Sum up by the major research and make policy recommendations. The dissertation also points out the details need to further research.
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