Study Of Individual And Crowd Behavior Decision Under Paroxysmal Social Public Crisis

Along with advance of globalized course and advent of information society, paroxysmal social public events have appeared some new charateristics and rules. These changes bring forward new challenges to concepts and policies by which government deal with crisiss, and put forward new requiment for theory and methods of crisis management study.The behavioral decision science, especially the prospect theory, which has been flourishing recent years and has gained plentiful achievements in the domain of eononomics, offers a new consideration in the research of social crisis prolems. With such a background, the individual and crowd behavior based on behavioral decision theory under paroxysmal social public crisis events are studied in this dissertation.The main research content and production is as the follows.Firstly, it is a first time to apply prospect theory to study people's behavior under paroxysmal public events in our country, and verify the validity of prospect theory by test.The work supply a new way to study behavioral decision under paroxysmal public events.The main contents are included giving a overall pectnation and review to prospect theory and its related achivements,verifying the validity of prospect theory under paroxysmal public events by tests,verifying the existence of heuristics and biases by test, and verifying behavior characteristics from individual psychologic biases under crisis .The results showed the conclusions and related effects of prospect theory are tenable in China in despite of some difference to some extent,applying prospect theory to study individual behavior under paroxysmal public events is effective. All these establish a theory foundation for the following work.Secondly, a kind of individual catastrophe panic perception quantitative analysis model is proposed, which makes up the deficiencies of traditional qualitative methods and provided a new way to understand sources of individual panic under crisis. The main contents are included three sections.A kind of concept model of individual panic perception under crsis is proposed, which is composed of the event character factors, the connetion factors between event and individual, social influence factors and individual oneself factors. The event risk types by individual overestimation are obtained. The work lay a fundation to understand individual panic.A kind of the individual panic perception model based Logit modelling is proposed, which is tested by SARS event.The results showed that the individual panic is only related to some main factors for given event in spite of many other factors,and these main factor can be estimated in advance by risk types estimation.A kind of individual risk perception model influnenced by information is proposed, which is to study information effects on individual risk perception and demonstrated by panic buying in SARS event.The rsults show that individual panic and overreaction under crisis is related to people's mental anticipation directly, and the anticipation may result in people's overreaction by private information, and the effect of pulic information lies on consistency between private information and public information, and people's confidence to government..Thirdly, a kind of crowd behavior compositive analysis model under paroxysmal public events is proposed, which makes up the deficiencies of former single subject methods and provided a new way to study crowd behavior under social crisis. The main contents are included four sections.A kind of classification for crowd behavior under social cisis is proposed, which is composed of the crowd behavior model based on imitation each other, the crowd behavior model based on spread around duty, and the crowd behavior model based on information.A knid of...