Research On The Pre-warning Management Of Safety Crisis For Oil Supply In China

Petroleum is the lifeline of modem industry. The stable supply for oilis related to the safety of modem political situation and economy. In recent years, the situation for safety of oil supply in our country is not optimistic.The safety of oil supply is becoming a big prolem. So making research on the pre-warning management of safety crisis for oil supply in China is essential.Above the achievements of research on the pre-warning management of safety crisis for oil supply in China and abroad,we start our research from analyzing the special feature for safety of oil supply in our country.And finally we obtain the fruits as below.(1)We has analysed the special feature for safety of oil supply in our country. From the reality of safety of oil supply in our country, we traced the machine-processed of "PSR"for the safety system of oil supply in our country.Aiming at the circumstances on safety of oil supply in our country now, we made the analyzing of "TOWS". We also analysed the three main factors of safety crisis for oil supply in China.(2)We have established the pre-warning system of safety crisis for oil supply in China.1)We established scientific system of index for pre-warning evaluating .which includes four parts as below: oil resources safety, the safety of way for oil supply, oil market safety and oil consume safety.According to the system of index for pre-warning evaluating,we made a quantitative evaluation of the situation on safety crisis for oil supply in China.2)We use the theory of "Swarm" to analyse the safety system of oil supply in our country, and we use the "international oil market"as an example.3)We identify the signal of crisis for oil supply in China,and we also give an alarm of the crisis.We use VB to work out corresponding software. Finally, we use an example to test it and the aoolied effect is perfect.(3)The countermeasures of safety crisis for oil supply in China.According to the result of pre-warning evaluation, we study the countermeasures of crisis aiming at the main factors.â‘ Countermeasure No.1: depending on the domestic resources, speeding up the exploration and production of domestic oil, making a great effort to realize using domestic oil resources as the main ensuring of safe supply. Opening up the source of imported oil. The strategy for expansion of overseas oil and natural gas . Speeding up the production and use of natural gas, undertaking the strategy of using natural gas to substitute oil and realizing the pluralism of energy resources.â‘¡Countermeasure No.2:establishing safeopen and smooth way of oil supply, which includes the abroad and the domestic.