| In the 21st century, the trend of globalization expands widely and rapidly. As one of the most important drives, foreign direct investment(FDJ) has been paid more and more attention for its effects on constructing the technological innovation capability and sustainable strategic competitiveness in the less developed countries (Sanjaya Lall, 1990) . With the inflow of FDI in China speeding up, it is an important issue for the Chinese industries whether they could share the effect of technological spillovers from foreign advantage technology or not. How to make full use of FDI and avoid the trap of marginalization relates not only to the technological catching-up strategy of our industries but also to the long-term development of technology and science of our country.So far, most researches of FDI focus on the effect of economic spillovers from FDI to the host country based on production function model. Our research is still based on this model, and supposes that between FDI and TFP there are three linear steps which are innovative promotion(including "market competition", "market growth", "technological opportunity", "technological appropriation"), innovative input(including "input structure", "input intensity") and innovative output (including "innovative effect", "innovative efficiency", "export competitive ability", "marginalization risk"). And they are mediated by "absorptive ability", "technological gap" and "technological intensity".We select 37 industries in China from year 1998 to 2003. Most data comes from the yearbook of Chinese Industry and the yearbook of science and technology of China. Our research includes two parts.In the first part, the main tasks are to test the direct, indirect and mediation relationship between innovative output and FDI. The direct model discusses the relationship between innovative output and FDI. The indirect model discusses the relationship of the two variables moderated by innovative input intensity and innovative input structure. The mediation model discusses the two variables mediated by technological gap, technological intensity and absorptive ability.In the second part, the main tasks are to test the moderating effect of innovative promotion factors on the relationship between innovative input and FDI. including the direct, indirect relationship between innovative input and FDI, and their relationship model moderated by innovative promotion factors. The direct model discusses the relationship between innovative input and FDI. The indirect model discusses the relationship between innovative input and FDI moderated by single innovative promotion factor. The moderation model discusses the relationshipbetween innovative input and FDI moderated by all the four innovative promotion factors. After the statistical analysis above, family appliances industry is selected for case study, to further explain the results of statistical analysis.According to the path of FDI spillovers, we find out:1. There are gaps between foreign and domestic enterprises in innovative effect, innovative efficiency and export. And those gaps have not been reduced in the past six years. The gap of innovative effect is particularly distinct in these industries where technological intensity is relatively high. The more there are absorptive fees and technology import fees, there are more FDI spillovers on innovative effect and efficiency; the level of human capital is higher and the technological gap is larger in the industry, the FDI spillovers are weaker.2. From the view of technological marginalization, FDI has strong influences on local companies' market reduction in short term, technological dependence in the long run, and R&D capabilities' shrinking, especially in high-tech industries. The mediating effects of absorptive capability, the quantity and quality of human resource in the industry on those negative influences are obvious. But the mediating effects of technological gap are not significant in the statistical analysis.3. FDI impacts directly on innovative effect, and has indirect impacts on innovative efficiency through influences on innovative input intensity in the industry. And the structure of innovative fund source influences the usage efficiency of the fund and the innovative efficiency. It also partly moderates the relationship between FDI and innovative efficiency. In further study, it finds out that market growth, market competition and technological appropriation have partial moderating effects on the relationship between FDI and innovative input intensity of the industry, but the moderating effect of technological opportunities is not significant.The globalization of manufacturing and R&D has opened the opportunitywindow of learning for Chinese companies" technological catching-up and technological innovation. And it brings in big challenges at the same time. The real technological catching-up is dependent on acquiring the process of technology import and technological innovation. And to get rid of technological dependence in the high-tech industries, our companies must strengthen their technological absorptive capabilities and develop their own innovative abilities. |
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