Quantitative Consumer Research

The research of consumption theory and methodology has been important content of economics study, is one of the frontier tasks of modern economy theory and especially modern macroeconomics theory. Consumer is an important component part of consumption and improving people's living standard and quality is the ultimate goal of production. Therefore, consumer study, especially empirical study has been receiving focus of government and economists. This paper analyzes and researches consumer theory and method, and takes urban residents in Beijing for example to do empirical study.On the basis of the research outcome of our predecessors, this paper builds up a suit of research model and framework on multi-level resident consumption and does research into consumer behavior according to a large quantity of statistical materials on investigation of family budget and questionnaire data on mobile phone consumption. This thesis mainly includes:Firstly, reorganize the basic theory and framework of consumption and summarize all kinds of research outcomes and application condition on consumption function, consumption structure and product selection. The thesis considers above conclusion as theoretical basis to analyze consumption behavior of urban residents. The paper presents two-way linear expenditure systems model by summarizing methodology of consumer choice behavior and makes empirical analysis.Analysis of the level of resident consumption mainly bases on theoretical analysis and makes use of time series data, cross-sectional data, panel data, microscopic individual data and summary data to make empirical analysis. A vast amount of individual data is used to establish micro-econometric models and make a comparison with summarized data model. In addition, this paper makes an analysis of individual effects and time effects on consumer expenditures from income, educational qualifications, age, industry and other aspects. In a quantitative perspective, it also testifies other correlative factors which have an impact of urban household consumption expenditure.On the basis of analysis of the level of consumption expenditure, this paper first uses extended linear expenditure system to make static analysis and dynamics contrast analysis of the level of basic consumption expenditure and consumption structure. Panel Data model is used to make a further analysis of resident consumption structure so as to reflect the characteristic of consumer behavior, distinguish and measure some factors which cross-section data and time series model cannot distinguish. For example, on condition that consumption expenditure structure is mainly decided by income level, marginal propensity to consume keeps stable and is subject to the influence of income rank and time, this thesis makes use ofchangeable intercept model to analyze income rank effects and time effects of all kinds of consumption items expenditure. And it also puts forward panel linear expenditure systems model, uses panel data to make an empirical analysis and has tried to avoid limitation of general application of extended linear expenditure model in order to make a thorough analysis of consumption structure.In the study of product optimization selection of consumer, mobile phone market is regarded as an example to research and analysis consumer's preference and choice behavior in the same kind of product. While analyzing, we first construct four levels of consumption product selection, then make an empirical study in proper order. In the course of the study, this thesis respectively adopts the following methods such as bivariate discrete preference pattern, sequencing preference pattern, Tobit model and so on. In the respect of content, (1) Make an analysis of correlative factors in consumer choice to mobile phone consumption (including the selection of whether or not to purchase, the choice of mobile phones for Chinese and foreign brands, mobile phone brand choice, etc.) (2) Establish econometric model by processing missing data and make an analysis of influence of major factors on consumer demand of mobile phone.On the basis of analysis of consumer behavior, this thesis specially presents: (1) It is feasible and effective to start with microscopic individual data and make use of micro-econometric methods such as Panel Data model, discrete preference pattern and so on. (2) Pay particular attention to low-income groups, scientifically formulate the standard of minimum living guarantee, improve minimum living guarantee system of urban residents and raise the standard of the minimum guarantee. The formulation of security standards not only should take into account the basic physiological needs and the needs of the labor reproduction, but also should consider the level of consumption that at present urban residents has reached. (3) Step up the support of state finance on the establishment and improvement of the social security system and reduce the risk expectations and uncertain expenditure expectations of low-income persons. (4) Consumption behaviors of urban residents are to some extent showing ethnocentricity, but there still exists certain gap between domestic products and foreign brand products. If domestic and foreign manufacturing enterprises are on the level in product quality and reputation, coupled with ethnocentricity of the domestic consumers, the domestic enterprises can occupy a dominant position in the market. (5) In the course of analysis, some problems existing in statistical data has been reflected. In order to better reflect the level of household income and consumption expenditures of different income ranks, we should improve investigation methods, especially investigation methods for high-income families.