Financial Development,Technological Progress And Foreign Trade's Upgrading

With the global economic integration, the finance and the trade is increasingly becoming the core and the engine that drives economic growth, as an extension of the theoretical and empirical research, there has been a growing trend of integration between the theory of financial development and international trade, and it has become an academic frontier of the international economic theory research. In recent years, since the endogenous economic growth theory has been proposed, technological progress has become the focus of many scholars'attention, thus forme a representative research. However, both at home and abroad, the research about financial development, technological progress and foreign trade's upgrading are mostly pair wise parallel, on very little paper study on their mechanism and the intrinsic link, so there is a need to be in-depth study and practice test questions.Reality, the relationship about financial development, technological progress, foreign trade's upgrading is not only an academic problem, it is a practical research topics. At present, the low efficiency of financial markets and the lack motivation of technological progress have become an important factor restricting China's trade patterns change, the comparative advantage of foreign trade can not stop at the low value-added products and processing trade, but should be toward the high-tech and high value-added product, only in this way, we can get rid of fall into the trap of comparative advantage. Therefore, the article attempts to take financial development as the starting point, with the technology progress and improving the capability of independent innovation as the core channels, study the mechanism of financial development affect China's foreign trade's upgrading.This paper aims to research the important role of financial development in promoting technological progress and foreign trade's upgrading, from three aspects of theoretical analysis, indicators measure and empirical study to further deepen the understanding of the relationship between them. The full text consists of eight parts:the first part, description of research background and significance, literature review, research frameworks, methods, tools and innovative features; the second part, proposed the hypothesis of the comparative advantage of financial development, then from four perspectives to analysis the direct effect of financial development in promoting foreign trade's upgrading, and from two levels to analysis the indirect effects of financial development in promoting technological progress; the third part, measure the relevant indicators, we construct four provincial-level financial development indicators, use of two different methods to measure technological progress indicators and compare of their results, calculation of the four high-tech products of comparative advantage indicators and the three technical level of export trade indicators; the fourth part, we use of the traditional VAR model, the panel cointegration model and the panel VAR model to study the long-term dynamic relationship between the three; the fifth part, we use of the static panel model and dynamic panel data model to study endogeneity problem that may exist between the three; the sixth part, we use of the spatial econometric model to study the space spillovers effect of them; the seventh part, we use of the panel threshold model and quantile regression to examine the nonlinear relationship between financial development, technical progress and industrial upgrading; the eighth part, according to the basic conclusions of the study, we put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Through a systematic analysis of this paper, the following basic conclusions is:First, the theoretical analysis shows that some mechanism among them may exist, on one hand financial development can contribute directly to the foreign trade's upgrading, and on the other hand, financial development but also through the promotion of technological progress, and thus indirectly promote the industrial upgrading of foreign trade. Furthermore, financial development can improve the capability of independent innovation, but also can improve the FDI technology spillovers. Second, the indicators measure showed that China's financial structure is still in financial intermediation, financial markets, supplemented by direct financing such as stocks and securities markets to be further developed, with the scale of financial development has been greatly improved, and its operation efficiency makes concerns; compared with the SFA method to the TFP estimated by the DEA method is more suitable for China's realities, and TFP mainly rely on the contribution of technological progress, improvement of technical efficiency is significantly behind on technological advances to improve; are considered high-tech product imports case factors and factors of processing trade, which measure the structure of foreign trade were significantly reduced in most areas in the comparative disadvantage phase of high-tech products export processing trade is still the main way to trade. Third, the empirical analysis of dynamic testing, endogenous testing, spatial econometric testing and nonlinear inspection, to some extent, better support the theoretical framework of this article, namely whether it is foreign trade's upgrading or with technological progress, financial development has a very important role, but differ materially from the performance of different financial development indicators; further, the study found that the complementary relationship between financial development and FDI rather than the replaced relationship, and their interaction in favor of technological spillovers occur. In addition, in most cases, technological progress, FDI, human capital and factor endowments have a positive impact in promoting foreign trade's upgrading.Compared with the previous studies, the innovation of this paper is: First, in the research perspective, building an analytical framework in where financial development can promote the technological progress and foreign trade's upgrading, from the perspective of financial development we discuss the reality of China's economic development, this research thought has important practical significance;Second, explore the measurable indicators of technological progress. We use of the DEA and SFA method and discuss their advantages and disadvantages, then on the basis of the understanding of China's financial development and foreign trade particularity to build multi-level measure of indicators and comparative analysis; Third, empirical analysis's innovation, on the basis of theoretical analysis, each focusing on three between dynamic, endogenous, spatial spillover effects and nonlinear characteristics, and use many cutting-edge quantitative analysis methods tested. In short, the article seeks to study the contents of the system is comprehensive, true and reliable scientific norms of the research methods and conclusions of the study.Based on theoretical research and empirical analysis, the main direction of China's financial reform and development should be:the implementation of the efficiency of financial intermediation, optimization, implementation of the different regional financial policy; great efforts to develop multi-level capital market to enhance the financial autonomy of technological innovation capabilities; quality of attracting FDI, focusing on financial development and FDI technology spillovers; strengthen financial supervision, pay attention to the risks involved in the process of financial development.