On The Mechanism Of The International Monetary System, The Financial Crisis

The outbreak of the U.S. subprime crisis in 2007 had drug the whole world into a new round of global financial crisis period. Unlike in the past, this time the crisis origined from U.S., the center of world financial system, not from the periphery. The crisis had spread to Europe and the emerging market countries around the world. Alomost all world countries and regions are subject to the tremendous impact of this financial crisis. The unprecendented financial crisis prompted the world to reexamine the existing international monetary system, the calls to reform the system are rising, the international community,governments,experts and scholars have ascribed the financial crisis to the non-equilibirium and instability of the existing international monetary system, they also proposed a lot of recommendations on how to reform it.For the future direction and reference on the international monetary system reform path, the dissertation try to analyze the mechanism of the international monetary system on financial crisis through two aspects, one is the supply of international reserves, the other is the relationship between the central country and its periphery in the system.The dissertation is composed of seven charpters:Firstly, the introduction gives the background, the importance, the strcture, the methods, as well as the innovations and shortcomings of the study.Secondly, the Chapter One is on literature review, by review of existing literature, we differ our study with past through two aspects, on the one hand, we try to research in a much longer history period, on the other hand, we establish a empirical model to conduct the research.Chapter Two we redraw the international monetary system since 1871 on the basis of the international reserve supply and the relationship between the central country and its periphery, and focus on the specific characteristics of each period.Chapter Three introduce the financial crisis situation in the each international monetary system, including the crisis type,quantity,characteristics and so on. Dealing with these datas we compared and sumarized the occurrence and characteristics of different monetary system.Chaper Four analyze the mechanism of the internatioanl monetary system on the financial crisis through two aspects, one is the relationship between the shortage of international reserve with the financial crisis, the other is the relationship between the center-periphery stucture with the financial crisis. For the peripheral countries, the supply of international reserves, the central country's monetary supply, the central country's monetary and exchange rate policy changes, the central country's declining hegemonic dominance all have a huge impact on the peripheral countrys and may induce peripheral country's financial crisis. Furthermore, the central country's declining hegemonic dominance will eventually lead to its currency crisis and sovereign debt crisis.Chapter Five conduct an empirical model to test the theory assumped in the Chaper Four, the empirical results show that the period in the international monetary system, the international reserve supply, the central country's monetary supply, the central country's interest rate changes, the central country's exchange rate movements, the central country's hegemonic dominance changes all have a significant impact on the probability of financial crisis in the peripheral countries.Finally, Chapter Six consits of a summary of the whole study and a prospect of the future international currency system. The reserch proved the international monetary system had a signifanct impact on the financial crisis, and the replacement of the international monetary system will be symbolized by the sovereign default in the central country. Considering China is still a peripheral country in the monetary system, we should care more about U.S.'s monetary poliy and exchange rate policy, pay close attention to the U.S. treasury bond market and select the correct response.