Logistics Operation Characteristics:a Theoretical And Empirical Study

The logistics has experienced more than one hundred years history since its generation. To study the basic operation characteristics of logistics systematically, time is preliminary ripen. Studying the basic operation characteristics of logistics could make a contribution to shorten the lag between logistics operation characteristics theory and logistics operation practice, which would explain regularity Phenomenon during the logistics operation. It is significant to explore the best operation path of Chinese logistics, to monitor and warn the logistics operation, to smooth the fluctuation of logistics operation, and to support government policy making also.This dissertation builds a framework of the logistics operation characteristics theory based on macroeconomics theory. Study the logistics operation characteristics of growth, cycle and stochastic characters separately. And then make an empirical analysis with Chinese logistics operation. The main works of this dissertation are as follows.I) The indicators of logistics operation. Give methods to choose the coincident indicators of logistics operation and to build the index of logistics operation. Both indicators and index are based on data from the national economic and social statistics, which can make up the lack of logistics data caused.II) The growth characteristics of logistics operation. Analyze effects of the logistics institution changes, the logistics technology progress, the logistics human capital investment, the physical capital input, and the logistics labor input in logistics growth. Bring up a dynamic mechanism of logistics growth. Build a logistics growth path model based on production function analysis. This model could simulate the logistics growth path effectively.III) The cycle characteristics of logistics operation. Design methods to measure the logistics cycle based on the integration of HP Filter, BP Filter and spectrum density. This method would measure both the length and times of logistics cycle validly. Construct a state space model of common logistics cycle based on multivariable dynamic factors. This state space model may identify the comovement of logistics cycle. Build a regime switching model of logistics cycle based on markov switching. This regime switch model could identify the asymmetry of logistics cycle.IV) The stochastic characteristics of logistics operation. Build an extracting model of logistics stochastic characters based on factors separating. This extracting model might pick up the stochastic factor of logistics and so the stochastic characteristics of logistics operation could be analyzed.V) The empirical analysis of Chinese logistics operation. Gain the basic characteristics of Chinese logistics operation. Those basic characteristics are:i) There experienced4stages during time from1950to2009. The difference between stages is caused mainly by the institution changes, ii) The growth rate path of logistics average labor output agrees with a growth curve well, iii) There are7ascend-to-descend cycles which average length is6.8year during time from1950to2009, and now is in the8th cycle. As take to the intensity of fluctuation, the longer cycle fluctuate bigger than the shorter one. iv) There is significant comovement in the logistics cycle, means cycles between many logistics aspects are generally coincident both in recession and boom, v) There is obvious asymmetry in the logistics cycle, that is the average length of recession time and that of boom time are not same at all. And vi), the stochastic characters has a very little effect to the logistics operation. The stochastic characters itself follows not other statistical distributions but a random walk.