Analysis Of The Features Of The Business Cycles In China

By the reform and opening up, many scholars and research findings proved that the continuous development of China’s economy is still in the long-term process, while there are also economic cycle fluctuation. Now China varies middle-speed development of the instruction into high-speed development of the structure.Our economy has been transformed into "high flat in the" new normal under the past "ups and downs", while domestic and international economic situation is more complicated, the economic showing new features unlike past years.In order to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control successfully, national economic policy makers need to run the business cycle stages in which the economic situation and future development prospective judge correctly. Therefore, the correct description of the economic cycle fluctuation trend, and careful analysis of the fluctuation characteristics of China’s economy, China’s macroeconomic volatility and further reveals the law and help the government in a timely manner and accurately determine and predict the economic situation and making practical financial policy and monetary policy, the development of effective economic development strategy, to promote economic stability and sustainable development.In the modern business cycle research since the 1980s of the last century, the international community often do the research about the growth cycle where macroeconomic indicators change around the long-term trend, but related to the variable long-term trends identified and removed. In modern economic cycle, the international research is usually around the long-term trend growth cycle changes. Since the founding of New China, the majority of economic indicators are on the absolute amount of growth, but the growth rate fluctuates, so the majority of our research departments and government agencies use growth rate of cyclical fluctuations to research growth cycle status. Literature show a lot, but the combination of the two studies is still relatively rare in literature.Innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects:(1) This economic growth cycle and economic growth combined cycle fluctuation characteristics of joint research of the economic cycle, mostly only study the growth cycle or only studied growth cycle. (2) band analysis is a sequence corresponding to the frequency band between a frequency domain correlation between the size of the measure, which is very rare in the domestic literature. Research for this paper, a frequency band analysis of cyclical fluctuations in economic growth, constructed a situation that reflects our consistent macroeconomic volatility index.Innovation of this paper is mainly reflected in two aspects:(1)In this paper, the growth cycle and growth cycle were measured and made comparative analysis for fluctuation characteristics of the economic cycle, making up for the shortcomings of existing domestic research literature. (2)Band analysis is a sequence corresponding to the frequency band between a frequency domain correlation and the size of the measure, which is very rare in the domestic literature. a frequency band analysis of cyclical fluctuations in economic growth is applied in this paper, constructing a coincident index that reflects our consistent macroeconomic volatility index, which making climate index construction more refined and accurately.