An Empirical Analysis Of Research Investments' Agricultural Productivity Growth Effect In China

The No.1 paper of the central in 2010 noted that because of various traditional and non-traditional challenges, it has become more and more difficult for the development of agriculture. So innovation of agriculture science and technology, promoting the resource to agriculture and rural must be as a major task in the future. According to the analysis of National Program for long-term food security, industrialization, urbanization and population growth against the background of grain demand growth, while the reduction of arable land, water shortages and other resource constraints enhancement, the situation of food security becomes rigid. Meanwhile, the relatively low economic efficiency of agriculture makes a massive outflow of young labor in major grain producing areas. Structural shortage of agricultural labor and the "sideline" trend of food production already appeared. There is increasing difficulty to mobilizing farmer's enthusiasm to grow grain and maintaining the steady development of grain production, and food security situation has become more and more severe. To further increase food production, ensuring food security must accelerate agriculture technology innovation to increase agricultural productivity and achieve modernization of agriculture.Modern agricultural base, the coordinated development of agriculture and industry is an important guarantee and foundation for a modern country's economic and social harmony and sustainable development. After the mid-industrialization, the rapid expansion of non-agricultural sector puts forward higher requirements for the development of agriculture. By improving productivity and the modernization of agriculture production methods has become an inherent requirement of the process of industrialization. Agricultural development lags, widening the gap between industry and agriculture has become a delay and bottleneck of modernization and macro-economic healthy development. Therefore, agricultural modernization has become an important economic task should be necessary resolved.Technology is the primary drive for growth of agriculture, and agriculture research investment is the material basis for the innovation of agriculture technology. With strong public good characteristics determines the government as the main body of agriculture research investment in China. A long period of developing countries and with limited financial capacity, we must attach importance to performance and efficiency of agriculture research investment, and build high-efficiency of agricultural research investment operation mechanism. Thus, agricultural research investment on agricultural productivity growth effect should be concerned, so that research investment can be more valuable and targeted.With the trend of economic integration and strengthening of regional expansion openness degree, trade and factor mobility, information diffusion and technology spillover effects, regional economic growth has shown a clear spatial effect, one regional economic growth depends not only on its own, but also with other regions, especially the adjacent regions. While the existing literature on agricultural research investment and spatial spillover effects is still very much lacking in spatial effects, which may cause results of the analysis is not ideal, thus this article attempts to consider the time lag and space effect of agricultural research investment, and estimate the effect of agricultural research investment on agriculture productivity. After further empirical analysis of the factors that influced agriculture research investment productivity effects, this paper puts forward suggestions to improve the efficiency of agricultural research investment.In this paper, the content is mainly divided into five parts, the specific framework as follows:Part one:The analysis of changes in China's agricultural productivity growth. Through using non-parametric method of HMB index study of China's main source of growth in agricultural productivity and technological progress, technical efficiency in agriculture productivity growth, and through analysis effectiveness of input factors allocation in agriculture to explore the growth mode of China's agriculture.Agriculture productivity's growth variation in 1985-2007 shows that our country agriculture productivity's growth mainly comes from the technology advancement. Further analysis indicates that our country agriculture investment essential factor disposition lacks valid. It is necessary to further strengthen agriculture technology to transform agriculture growth way and enhancement production efficiency.Part two:Non-parametric analysis effects of agricultural research investment in China's agriculture productivity growth. Based on the causality test, using non-parametric local polynomial kernel regression analyzes the dynamic relationship of agricultural research investment and agricultural productivity growth.In the base of Granger causality test with agricultural research investment and agricultural HMB productivity index, using non-parametric local polynomial kernel regression to simulate the dynamic changes between agricultural research and productivity, and analysis the possible reason of regional differences.Part three:In considering the spatial effect, this part analysises effects of agricultural research investment in agricultural productivity growth through ESDA and CSDA.Spatial correlation test indicates that there are significant spatial correlations in Chinese provinces' agricultural productivity, and agricultural research investments performance strong spillover effects. Spatial panel fixed effect models estimation results show that agricultural research investment plays a significant positive role in promoting productivity. Further increasing investment in agricultural research can effectively promote productivity growth. Agricultural technology has not been played a corresponding substitution of the unleashing rural labor, so it is urgent to further enhance the science and technology of agriculture. Agricultural research investment potential can be released if rural education, agricultural research and extension could be effectively linked up.Part four: Useing of spatial econometric empirical analysises regional and structural differences of agricultural research investment in productivity growth effects.The geography weighted regression result indicated that further adding big agriculture provinces'agricultural research investment can promote the productivity growth effectively. Looking from agricultural research investment departments, the crop production research investment's productivity growth effect displays prominently, the fishery, the animal husbandry research investment has not obtained takes seriously. Increasing livestock and the fishery research investment can effectively improve the investment allocative effects. Looking from the sources of investment fund, the government research investment has the leading drawing function to the agricultural research investment productivity growth effect, business capital's function is relatively very low, operating income and loan coefficient is negative. In the agricultural research funds'disbursement project, official business expense, the working costs, the capital construction spend with other disbursement coefficient for negative, reducing business expense, engaging costs, construction capitals and other costs can effectively improve the efficiency of agricultural research investment and promote productivity growth. Looking from the research activity type, public agricultural research investment on experimental and development research's investment proportion is excessively high, which has limited the enterprise participation into the agricultural research investment. Too few basic and applied research investment has restricted our country agricultural technology innovation, therefore, public research Investment of China's agriculture should be more focus on basic research and applied research, and attract companies involved in the experiments and development research investment, forms multiplex investors to better display agricultural research investment's productivity growth effect.Part five:Influence factors analysis of agricultural research investment's productivity growth effects.This part has analyzed the influence of agriculture infrastructure condition, economic development level, agricultural research and technology promotion, technology using opportunity cost of peasant to the agricultural research investment productivity effect. The analysis result showed that the agricultural production infrastructure condition has remarkable influence to the agricultural research investment's productivity effect. It is need to further improve the agricultural production infrastructure condition, and provides a good environment for the agricultural research investment's productivity effect. The development of industrialization and urbanization does not display effective support function to agricultural research investment's productivity effects, it is necessary to pay more attention to coordination of industrialization, urbanization and agriculture development. Improving the openness of market degree can effectively promote the technology diffusion of agriculture. It needs to enhance the management of agricultural research and technology promotion so as to effectively realize the transformation of agricultural research investment to realistic productivity. The low agricultural comparison income has increased the peasant's technology using opportunity cost which is the most primary factor that affects the peasant's technology choice behavior. So increacing agricultural comparison income, changing the insufficient of agricultural technology effective demand, forming a positive cycle and interaction of scientific research and the production is necessary.In summing up the main conclusions of the paper, and based on the empirical results of the analysis, this paper puts forward suggestions to improve the efficiency of agricultural research investment.