Research On Supply Risk Assessment And Control Of Nuclear Power Equipment Manufacturing Enterprise Based On SCCW

Nowadays,many countries were committed to nuclear power and cover the shortage of traditional energy supply. China's nuclear industry is in the early stage of development , by the shortage of technological and management experience, which faced the severe supply risk: china has not achieved self-manufacture fully,the key equipment dependent on imports, at the same time, nuclear power equipment manufacturing pose a challenge to the capability limit of domestic manufacturing enterprise, when the nuclear power equipments are not the primary business of them, manufacturing enterprises always in-cooperative. Therefore, it is not only a theoretical issue, but a real problem to research how to predict and control the supply risk.In nuclear power equipment manufacturing industry, the quality assurance abilities, techniques, and the willingness are different between types of nuclear power equipment manufacturing supplier, and this significant difference has important influence on supply risk. Therefore, firstly, on the basis of analyzing literature and nuclear power equipment manufacturing and supplier's characteristic, this paper puts forward the four-classification theoretical model of suppliers classification under dimensions on capability and willingness (SCCW). I.e. suppliers oriented, strategic, loose and demanders oriented. In order to verify the theoretical model and provide a quantitative method of supplier classification, clustering analysis was used to analyze the research data. Clustering results show that all indexes have significant difference between four kinds of suppliers, and the difference between four kinds of suppliers accorded with theoretical model were analyzed.Secondly, the influence factors of supply risk from internal and external ware analyzed. On the basis of theoretical analysis, the internal and external supply risk factors ware discussed further, theoretical assumptions ware established about the correlation between all these factors and supply risk. Then, data mining tools ware use to verify the theoretical assumptions. Furthermore, the influence of indexes and key points of risk controlling between four kinds were discussed.Thirdly, according to the research results above, using the influence factors of supply risk and virtual variable of suppliers'category, this paper established Assessmentmodels respectively based on support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). Furthermore, according to the principle of least sum of error squares, this paper put forward the combined Assessmentmodel based on SVM and DT. The forecasting results of three Assessmentmodels show that the Assessmentaccuracy of all three models was higher, and the system error was smaller, and the evaluation parameters of combined model are better than which of single SVM model and DT model.Finally, based on the supplier classification, identification of risk factors and Assessmentof risk degree, this paper analyzed the critical path and key points in system construction, system operation and system dying. Moreover, this paper put forwarded the control approaches according to the key points of risk controlling.