The Study On The Venture Investment Decision Support System

High-tech enterprises developed rapidly since 2000 in china, especially it has become one of the major forces promoting China's economic development. Venture capital is an important source of funds for high-tech enterprise, how to improve the efficiency of investing and optimize the allocation of resources becomes a heat issue of studies domestic and internationally. From the perspective of venture capital, this dissertation discussed the value of the venture business, investment risk and portfolio decisions, which of great significance.It could both improve the venture capital investment decision-making and guide the healthy development of China venture business.This dissertation reviewed the theories of corporate value, venture capital and sources of investment value, after that the investment value in the venture capital perspective was defined. Concerning investment amount, investment returns, investment risk, and times, which the venture capital institutions pay the most attention, this dissertation proposed the concept of investment value according to the financial strength of different investors, investment preferences, and gave the formula of high-tech business investment value, and discussed the basic characteristics of the four functions, provided ventrue investors with new ideals of determining investment value.To improve venture capital institutions'efficiency of investing, based on the formula of high-tech business investment value, this dissertation designed the venture investment decision support system, which includes basic databases, major functional blocks and algorithms library. Through the venture investment decision support system, investors could estimate the investment value of venture business, evaluate the investment risk of venture business and select the venture investment portfolio. By using fuzzy theory, the core of the three main modules were discussed.(1) The enterprise evaluation module was a collection of various methods of asset pricing. As venture investors was uncertain about the project value and the amount of investment when making decision, this dissertation used normal fuzzy sets to improve the real options, after derivate the operations of normal fuzzy sets, we proposed single growth fuzzy real option model, compound fuzzy real option and multi-stage compound fuzzy real option. Further more, we solved these models and gave an example, which illustrated that the venture investors can get a fuzzy investent value of the venture business by his understanding of the project.(2) In the decision support systems, the function of investment risk assessment module was the comprehensive evaluation of investment risk. This dissertation disscussed the risk of venture investment and the risk assessment process design. Constructed the evaluation index system which reflected the market risk, technical risk, financial exposure, management risk, credit risks, financial risk and risk of resignation. Grid and fuzzy borda number were used to get the weight of each index. To maximizing the use of the information in experts'score, this dissertation set the risk level, and constructed the whitening function, then the fuzzy gray relational method was used to get the risk score.(3) Venture capital institutions could reduce the investment risk by venture investment portfolio. This dissertation views the experts'interval socres on each index as the incomes, and views covariance as the risk, constructed the venture fuzzy investment portfolio model. At last, the interval incomes and risks could be determined from a certain risk appetite, and the best portfolio could also be determined. Example shows that this model could help risk diversification.