Research On The Evaluation Of Venture Investment Project Based On The Real Option In Fuzzy Setting

Venture capital play a key role in the development of the current social economy, The venture capital has a inherent advantage in the promotion of high-tech development, Establish and improve the industrial structure and economic structure, Improve corporate financial system, provide a lot of job opportunities and increase national wealth. That is to say:To support the venture capital is becoming a worldwide consent.Real option consist of Continuous-time model and Discrete-time model, Continuous-time model represent B-S formula, and Discrete-time model represent the binomial model. They can solve the different type of option. The paper classify the venture capital industry into four phases. seed phase, introduction phase, development phase and mature phase. And the paper introduce the different type of option into the phase of venture capital industry in order to calculate the option value which has been ignored by traditional investment decision. However, the hypothesis of the appliance of the real option is that the parameter is constant, witch is invalid in the high risk project. Because the there has been high uncertainty in the high risk project.. That is to say, the traditional real option is valid in infrastructure industry. We need the further research to improve the real option in order to widen the usage of the real option.Based on the Fuzzy Math and Real Option, the article introduce trapezoid fuzzy numbers to establish the Fuzzy B-S model for evaluating the enlarging venture capital project, as well as the Fuzzy Binary tree model for evaluating the postponing venture capital project. The article aim at completing the evaluation framework for the venture capital project in fuzzy setting. Emphasizing the importance of considering the future revenue while you are evaluating the venture capital project.