Research On Portfolio Selection And Commercial Evaluation Of R&D Projects Under Fuzzy Environment

Along with the advance of social science and technology development,market competition is intense.R&D is the basis for the survival and development of enterprises,but also an important support for sustainable development,corporate investors in the face of multiple R&D project will carry on the reasonable choice.In the case of limited resources on the portfolio choice,to reduce cost and avoid risk,to improve the competitiveness of the enterprise itself.However R&D project portfolio selection with many fuzzy uncertainty,the uncertainty of project costs and benefits and various fuzzy dependencies between projects,these investors will affect the final decision.There are many scholars to study respectively,but few fuzzy uncertainty and the dependent relationships between projects at the same time into consideration.This paper not only considers the fuzzy cost and profit of the influence of R&D project portfolio selection,but also considering the project there are certain dependencies between costs and benefits.Finally using the fuzzy real option for flexible management project.For the whole of R&D project from development to the end of the market analysis and study of the whole life cycle system,and through the example to verify its rationality and practicability.This article is based on uncertain planning theory and the theory of real option evaluation,will project the whole process of R&D portfolio selection decisions and the analysis and research of the market-oriented management,namely R&D project the beginning until the end of the whole analysis of the research.The main research work is as follows:(1)This paper studies the combinatorial optimization problem of R&D project under the risk confidence level.In order to maximize the returns of portfolio decision,the fuzzy expected programming model is established under the uncertain fuzzy environment,considering the value of option value,resource limit and risk confidence level.The design of hybrid intelligent algorithm to find the optimal solution of the model.Then compare the changes in risk and profit when the risk confidence levels are different.(2)As the projects are not necessarily independent of each other,they may depend on each other.Therefore,considering the existence of project dependence and resource cost dependence between the two factors,establish the fuzzy expectation model in the fuzzy environment.And compares it with the results of the previous chapter under the same conditions,and analyzes the change of the income and risk of portfolio selection when there are dependencies among the projects.(3)After the R&D project is commercialized,it is evaluated by fuzzy real option evaluation.Through the establishment of binary tree model of R & D project analysis and evaluation,to identify the most appropriate time to implement the option,so that investors in the evaluation process to avoid risks and maximize the benefits of management.