Energy Substitution, Security Constrain And Economy Development

The power of economic development is one of the most emphasized factors in economic growth theory. Natural resources have been playing important roles in both technology innovation and economic development, both the fossil resource and renewable resource such as fish resource, forest resource, water resource have been widely discussed. Although a long term discussion exists, the renewable energy has never been emphasized as fossil energy. Compared with fossil energy, renewable energy has unique advantages, such as renewability, environmentally friendly character, and positive government policy; and the disadvantages such as the lack of technology innovation, high cost, unreliable supply, and seasonable supply. So the investigation of the role played by renewable energy which will help to establish a new aspect of economic growth theory, will benefit not only the analysis of renewable energy, but also the study of dynamic economic developing process.Based on the related study about global energy consumption and economy development, and the real situation in China, this dissertation involved producing function into the study of renewable energy. According to the inner increasing model, and using dynamic optimal theory, the author invested the correlationship among technology innovation, renewable energy application, and energy consuming efficiency, and the affection mechanism was also studied. The author also studied the affection of energy substitution on economy increasing possibility, path, and condition. Based on the provincial panel data (except for Tibet), the functional relationship and ratio between factor investment such as un-renewable energy, renewable energy, and material capital and economy development were studied with case analysis, and the theory model was also tested with case analysis.Then, this research studied the relationship between variables such as un-renewable energy, renewable energy, labor cost, capital deposit, and R&D cost and the real GDP, and found there was a cointegration relation among different variables. The Granger causality based on error correction model showed that there was a short term two-way Granger causality between un-renewable energy and real GDP, and a short term one-way Granger causality between renewable energy and real GDP.By the construction of inner increasing model, the author also studied the role of bio-mass energy in economy development and energy system. It was found the research and application of bio-mass energy could promote economy development positively, which has never been stated by former article. And related policies and suggestions were stated according to the combination of model theory and the real situation of bio-mass development in China.Finally, the author concluded that the energy intensive industry has the characters of large scale and high investment, so advanced technology, instrument, and developing concept should be adopted, otherwise the industry would be trapped on the path of high consumption, high pollution, and high emission in the entire life cycle. The enterprises should be promoted to adopt advanced technology and instrument, reasonable manufacturing model, and the manufacturing procedure with low cost. Through the case analysis of Xiamen PX project, the author analyzed the national policy preference in energy project, the affection of public interest groups on public policy and environment protection; according to game model, the author analyzed the affection of governmental decision, and public participate on the environment protection cost and pollution behavior, and the degree of affection that was put on the public decision by interest group; and based on theoretical model and case analysis, the public's way to join governmental decision legally, to promote the research of substitution energy, and to give suggestions about the improvement of energy consuming efficiency and drop of pollution were stated.